Windy...cloudy...highs in the low 80s -- all part of the early Spring normal. Something else that is going to become increasingly more common in your forecast -- possible severe thunderstorms.
Yup, it's that time of the year where it's not uncommon to find a risk of some big thunder rumblers to roll through the Brazos Valley on, at least, a weekly basis. We had a few strong to severe storms push through the area last week, and it looks like our next shot will come by the middle of this one...
Setting up for Thunderstorms
Our latest weather maker is already making some noise across the country. A mess of clouds, rain and snow are covering portions of the Western US. Small disturbances, being flung from our main upper-low, are spinning across the Plains starting storms across Nebraska and Kansas Sunday evening and carrying them towards Chicago and the Great Lakes this Monday morning. Another SLIGHT RISK for severe weather is in place across the center of the country with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible later in the day.
This upper-level system will keep the wind blowing in the Brazos Valley over the next couple of days:
Monday: South wind 10-20mph, Gusting 25mph
Tuesday: SSE wind 15-25mph, Gusting 35mph
Wednesday: S wind becoming NNW 15-25mph, Gusting 35mph
Notice the wind shift? That'll be the trigger for possible thunderstorms by mid-morning Wednesday, followed by another drop on our recent roller coaster of temperatures.
Severe Weather Possible
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Brazos Valley under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather at some point between Tuesday night and Wednesday. (SLIGHT RISK meaning that there is the potential for thunderstorms and that, if they can form, they could become severe).
Main threats that we are monitoring for:
While an isolated tornado threat is not out of the question, it is going to be more of the exception than the rule. For now, timing of storms looks to be the key in determining what kind of severe weather we could find -- if any at all.
Below is the latest from our In-House PinPoint Computer Forecast Model for Wednesday morning. Main window for thunderstorms (as it looks from a Monday morning stance) will be mid-morning Wednesday through mid-afternoon.
Temperatures Go A' Swingin'
Warm weather will accompany our breezy to gusty south winds Monday and Tuesday. If all plays out as it looks, temperatures will top off in the 70s before falling behind our front / line of storms Wednesday afternoon. Here's the outlook of extremes across Texas over the next three days: