Wednesday Morning Update
The Flash Flood Watch that was in place for Tuesday Night / Wednesday morning have officially been dropped by the National Weather Service.
As we continue through Wednesday (October 16th, 2013), light to steady showers will continue to be possible. That said, rainfall rates will remain slow enough that flooding should not become an issue with any new rainfall.
Due to the overnight cold front, temperatures look to remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through the remainder of the day, with scattered showers popping in every once and a while.
We will officially bring this weather story to a close now that the threat for dangerous / severe weather has come to an end.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect for Milam, Robertson, Lee, and Leon Counties tonight through early tomorrow morning.
As rain starts to fall in the Brazos Valley, with the arrival of our cold front, saturated ground could fall subject to pockets of heavy downpours once again. An additional 0.50" to 1.50" of rainfall in locations could lead to localized and brief flash flooding / ponding of water on roadways.
Tuesday Late Night Update
Rain chances have been slow to materialize this evening, with only scattered showers developing across parts of the Brazos Valley. Where the rain has come together this evening, totals between 0.30" and 0.70" have been reported to the PinPoint Weather Center.
Light rain to the north -- associated with the cold front -- and to the west -- associated with a upper-level disturbance -- will continue to work towards the Brazos Valley after midnight Wednesday.
While a FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect through sunrise Wednesday, the threat will likely remain low across the area. We'll continue to monitor radar trends through the overnight hours.
Light rain, cloud skies and a light breeze from the north are still anticipated to keep temperatures on the cool side Wednesday -- with highs slated to only reach the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday Evening Update
As expected, winds have made a shift around to the north this evening -- just a few hours before sunset.
That pre-frontal wind shift has helped spark up a few showers and pockets of heavy downpours for parts of the Brazos Valley. As of 8pm, moderate to heavy rain was falling across Walker County and extending back through Trinity County.
A larger swath of rain is sitting just north of Waco -- stretched from Dallas / Fort Worth to Hillsboro to San Saba.
Our In-House PinPoint Computer Forecast Model has this rain activity moving into the Northern Brazos Valley by 10pm this evening. Judging by recent trends, we may need to put a slightly later time stamp on that arrival, as we await our actual cold front into the Brazos Valley.
Latest PinPoint Forecast Output
We'll continue to monitor the trends and bring you the latest here at KBTX.com and on our Social Media platforms.
Indications are that temperatures are still on their way to fall into the upper 50s / low 60s overnight, followed by a struggle to make it out of the upper 50s for much of our Wednesday.
A cold front is working south through Texas and expected to move into the Brazos Valley around Sunset Tuesday evening. As that front pushes in, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for the Brazos Valley.
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms could spring up during the afternoon hours -- mainly during the 2pm to 5pm time frame.
As our cold front approaches the area by 6pm to 7pm, an increase of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to move in as well -- especially for the Northern and Central Brazos Valley.
Rain will likely continue, off and on, through the overnight hours and then again on Wednesday as another disturbance works into the area from the west. Overall rain totals could exceed 1" to 2" of new rainfall by Wednesday evening, in localized pockets of the area.
Being behind our latest cold front, under cloud cover, and with rainfall continuing -- temperatures will likely remain in the cooler 60s during the day on Wednesday.
Below is the latest Regional View of our In-House PinPoint Forecast Model
Current Texas Temperatures -- Tracking a Cold Front
Wind damage and torrential rainfall occurred across parts of the Brazos Valley -- including Bryan / College Station -- early Sunday morning. The area experienced what was likely a "Wet Microburst." Another round of rain and storms will be possible again on Tuesday.
Multiple aspects of the forecast are coming together, including the arrival of the next cold front, to bring rain activity back to the Brazos Valley for Tuesday / Tuesday night / Wednesday.
The Big Picture:
Overcast skies were left in place Monday as Pacific moisture streamed across the State of Texas and the Brazos Valley. That moisture is being pulled from Tropical Storm Octave, located off the Baja / West Coast of Mexico.
An upper-level trough of low pressure stretched across the Western United States is steering that Pacific Moisture, and occasional disturbance, into Texas. The area of unsettled weather will also be the cause of a cold front moving into the Brazos Valley Tuesday evening / early Wednesday morning. After cooler air reaches the Brazos Valley, an additional chance for rain on Wednesday will remain as yet another disturbance moves through the area.
Timing of Showers and Thunderstorms
Waking up Tuesday morning, a few light showers will be possible as overcast skies start our day. -- 20%
By mid-morning, a few breaks in the cloud cover will be possible. Scattered showers could try to develop across the Northern and Northwestern Brazos Valley before 10am. -- 30%
Mid-morning through the Noon hour will bring a slightly better chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Overcast skies should move back into place as well. Rain chances pick up as we advance towards the lunch hour. -- 50%
We'll find the most likely time frame for scattered rain and thunderstorms between Noon and 4pm. While the rain won't fall for everyone, a few areas could see stronger activity which could provide for some heavy downpours. -- 50%
A break in chances occurs from 5pm to 7pm. Thunderstorms will continue to remain possible, but our attention shifts to the cold front approaching from the north and west. -- 50%
By early evening and heading into the later hours of Tuesday / early hours of Wednesday morning, we'll look for a possible line of showers and thunderstorms to blow through the Brazos Valley. Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side. -- 70%
Here is a look at the timing of rainfall from Monday afternoon's run of the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model:
With the Brazos Valley water-logged from Sunday morning's rainfall, additional heavy rain could become a concern in a few locations. Stronger thunderstorms could bring areas of localized, brief flash flooding for parts of the Brazos Valley.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are not highly likely -- but not out of the question, as well. A few thunderstorms could bring small hail, strong winds (60mph+), heavy rain, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
The storms ahead and along our approaching cold front could drop as much as 0.50" to 1.50" of rainfall across the Northern and Central Brazos Valley.
Southern counties in the area could receive between 0.50" and 1.00" of rainfall, as well.
Below is an estimate of rainfall through 6am Wednesday Morning from our in-house PinPoint Computer Forecast Model:
Cooler Air Arrives in the Brazos Valley / Another Round of Rain
Colder temperatures will move in on north to northwest winds by early Wednesday morning. That cool air will be present at the surface, while warmer and moist air continues to "override" that air mass in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.
Another disturbance will pass over the Brazos Valley, behind our cold front, bringing the next chance of steady showers. While temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-60s, cloudy skies and constant rain could leave us struggling to hit 60° in parts of the area.
Forecast Temperatures on Wednesday