Tuesday Blog (10/22): Beautiful For Now -- Changes By Halloween
Updated: 10/22/2013 -
Coming off of record rainfall in the Brazos Valley, over the weekend, another upper-level weather maker is working towards Texas. Widespread, heavy rain is possible for most of the State and Brazos Valley by mid-week.
Believe it or not, even though we've had plenty of rain over the past several weeks, Bryan / College Station remains behind on rainfall for the year.
As of Monday evening, our "year-to-date" rainfall totals 32.02" officially at Easterwood Airport. Normal for October 28th? 33.20" So, we're stuck with a deficit of 1.18" heading into the final days of October.
As a side note, early Sunday's rainfall totaling 1.40" flooded the old 24hour rainfall record of 0.69" set back in 1935 for October 27th.
Halloween Storm Setting Up
A large area of low pressure was found digging down the West Coast on Monday and will slowly churn towards Texas over the next 48 hours.
With this next weather maker sitting over the Desert Southwest / Four Corners Region on Tuesday, we'll look to stay mainly rain free for one more day.
Mostly cloudy skies will remain in place as high-to-mid level moisture is pulled in from the southwest -- off Hurricane Raymond in the Pacific -- while low level moisture is pushed in from the Gulf of Mexico on breezy south to southeast winds.
A stray shower will try to make a run at our southwestern counties, however the rain chance on Tuesday will only exist at a 10% shot.
Gearing Up For Another Wide-Spread, (Possible) Heavy Rainfall
By Wednesday afternoon, we'll call for our rain chance to increase from the southwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms look possible by late in the day and could continue well into Thursday as the main bulk of this system moves through.
Here's a look at the afternoon run of our In-House PinPoint Computer Forecast Model
Early, Soaking Halloween Rain & Storms
Our next cold front is on the schedule to slowly sag through the Brazos Valley during the day, Thursday. That means all those ghosts, goblins, and Halloween dressed may have to deal with rain on their way to work and school.
While the overall severe threat Wednesday and Thursday will remain low -- a few storms could be on the strong to briefly severe side of things. The main threat, especially with our line of thunderstorms Thursday, will be strong winds in excess of 40mph to 60mph.
As for Halloween & Trick-or-Treating plans by Thursday evening -- we should be good to go. As of this evening, it looks like we'll start our festivities in the low 80s by 5pm and quickly fall into the low 60s by 10pm (feeling like the 50s because of breezy north to northwest winds). We will need to watch out for any spots that may have had brief flooding earlier in the day.
Overall Rain Potential
The atmosphere will be extra juiced -- about double for what is typical of this time of the year.
We'll initially call for 1" to 2" of widespread rainfall, with isolated pockets of 3", 4", & 5"+ inches.
Updated: 10/22/2013 -
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