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With the exception of the far eastern edge of the News 3 area, the storm threat is over for today. We should see the tornado watch scaled back shortly.
Sunshine has moved in across much of the area along with drier air. Indications are that we will find returning cloud cover between 2pm and 4pm. Winds will continue to gust 30mph to 40mph. Once the clouds return, colder air will rush into the area dropping temperatures rapidly heading towards sunset and into the overnight hours.
The Tornado Warnings that were in effect for the Brazos Valley have been allowed to expire.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING remains in effect for Houston and Trinity Counties until 10:15am for quarter size hail and strong, gusty winds.
Once these storms clear our eastern counties, there will be a few scattered storms moving into far eastern Montgomery County and San Jacinto County. The storm / severe weather threat will pass the Brazos Valley completely by 11am.
Cold / gusty winds can be expected for the rest of today (gusting 30-40mph) with rapidly falling temperatures as we near sunset.
A tornado was reported to the National Weather Service in Houston County by two separate storm spotters:
--13 miles SE of Crockett: Along Hwy. 287 with the report of a building damaged.
--15 miles SE of Crockett: Tornado reported on the ground, passing through a pasture behind a house. (No damage reported with that sighting)
A TORNADO WATCH has been placed across the Southern and Eastern Portions of the Brazos Valley until 4pm today. Storms are continuing to push into the eastern side of the area ahead of a strong wind shift from the west and northwest.
As we continue towards the midday hours, there is a high probability that this watch may be tailored back to drop some of the counties in the area. Until then, be on alert as any storm that moves through could bring strong damaging winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado threat.
Bryan / College station IS NOT included in this watch. Areas west of I-45 that are not included in the Tornado Watch are in the clear for severe weather the rest of today. Strong, gusty winds will continue to span 30-40mph as our cold front moves closer to the Brazos Valley.
A second TORNADO WARNING has been issued for SE Houston County and NE Trinity County until 9:45am. The storm was located near Lovelady moving northeast at 45mph.
The SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for the Brazos Valley has been allowed to expire.
A TORNADO WARNING is in effect for Houston County until 9:30am. The storm was located to the Southwest of Crockett moving Northeast at 50mph. Residents in Crockett should move to a basement or interior room of a sturdy building away from windows.
PinPoint Radar is indicating an area of possible rotation near Crockett, quickly advancing to the east / Northeast and a second possible area of rotation near Lovelady moving in the same direction.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is in effect for Houston County until 9:15am. Quarter size hail and winds in excess of 60mph will be possible in Crockett, Lovelady, Grapeland and Latexo. Storm is moving to the Northeast at 55mph.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Houston and Trinity Counties until 9am for thunderstorms that could contain pea size hail and wind gusts in excess of 40mph.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY (non-thunderstorm related) is in effect for Milam & Robertson Counties until 8:45am. As winds being to shift ahead of a cold front, gusts upwards of 45mph will be possible. That line of wind gusts -- extending from Corsicana to Cameron -- will move to the east at 50mph.
1/2" hail was reported in Centerville (to the National Weather Service in Fort Worth) as the severe thunderstorm passed through.
As the Severe Thunderstorm Warning continue through 8:30am, the storm has moved primarily to the east of I-45 with heavy rain, frequent lightning and possible small hail continuing to move towards Houston County.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING has been issued for Leon County until 8:30am.
Quarter Size hail and winds in excess of 60mph will be possible. The most severe portion of this storm is expected in the Buffalo / Centerville area around 8am. Storm is moving northeast at 30mph.
A surface low has formed right over Lee County this morning. That will help to feed in showers and possible thunderstorms through the Central portions of the Brazos Valley. That will need to be the activity to watch due to high dew points and a better chance for those to become surface based storms (ie. higher chance to become severe).
The main bulk of storm activity continues to slowly work it's way south from Central and North Texas. As this cluster of strong storm activity -- containing gusty winds and small hail at times -- moves to the south that will slowly bring the storm chance to end from the northwest to the southeast as we head into the afternoon hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new discussion on the possibility of a new Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Texas. While most of the Brazos Valley would likely to not be included in this watch, it may include Montgomery, Walker and San Jacinto Counties (not official as of yet). Chance of watch: 95%.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY issued for Robertson County until 7:30am.
Storm located about 8 miles north of Franklin moving northeast at 40mph. Cities in the path of the storm include Bremond and Franklin. Nickel sized hail and wind gusts upwards of 40mph will be possible with these storms.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Robertson County as a strong storm sits over the northern and central portions of the county. Gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and possible penny size hail will occur as this storm slowly moves to the east / northeast.
The Storm Prediction Center has just released their latest thoughts on storm coverage along with the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch. As the morning progresses, thunderstorm activity is anticipated to increase across Central, East and Southeast Texas. A line of thunderstorms -- talked about originally below and advancing from the northwest -- is expected to continue their march towards the Brazos Valley, potentially bringing with it a large hail threat after sunrise this morning. The area of interest is circled below (most of the Brazos Valley) and the official wording can be found here.
Dew points -- better moisture values -- have increased quite a bit across the Brazos Valley this morning. In fact, many locations started with a dry dew point in the 30s a few hours ago but have now rebounded to the upper 40s to low 50s. As drier air moves in from the north, that could clash to create more thunderstorm activity across the Brazos Valley.
Here's a look at the 5:45am radar across the region. A few stronger thunderstorms (non-severe) were ongoing in our eastern counties -- noted by the occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strike.
A stronger line of thunderstorms -- with the occasional severe thunderstorm warning for large hail -- was ongoing from Brownwood to Waco to Dallas / Ft. Worth. It is that line of storms that we are monitoring for possible thunderstorm activity here in the Brazos Valley, an hour or two after sunrise.
Dew points -- higher moisture values -- are starting to creep north into the Brazos Valley. The better moisture supply is currently sitting across the southern and parts of the eastern half our area. As a warm front continues to try and drift northward, this could act as a focal point for storm development.
The entire area is under a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe weather as we continue to anticipate a strong cold front to move towards the Brazos Valley today. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (note the higher, "MODERATE RISK" just to the southeast of the Brazos Valley)
For the latest suggested time of events by our PinPoint Forecast Computer Model, click the "severe weather" picture above for a slideshow of snapshots as to what it possible as we continue through the morning hours.
Christmas Eve Forecast
A weak cold front moved through the Brazos Valley this Monday, Christmas Eve morning. That front will sit to our south leaving mild and partly cloudy conditions across the area for last minute Christmas shopping and holiday travel.
Conditions Begin to Change
Tomorrow -- Christmas Day -- a strong cold front, associated with a potent upper-level low moving into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma, will advance towards the Brazos Valley, bringing up the shower and thunderstorms chance for the start of the holiday.
That chance begins during the overnight hours -- shortly after 2am -- and will continue through the lunch hour on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the Brazos Valley under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather tonight / tomorrow. The main threats include large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes
What to Watch For
The same cold front that moved through the area today, and will provide for quiet and mild weather, will retreat to the north overnight as a warm front. That will usher in unstable and moist air back into the Brazos Valley, contrasted to the dry and cool air that is currently in place.
Thunderstorm activity could pop up along that warm front after midnight tonight and then possibly continue through lunch time as the initial wind shift (pre-frontal trough) to a stronger cold front advances into the area from the north.
We'll be watching the radar closely tonight and tomorrow -- the organization of thunderstorms will give a better idea of what specific severe weather threat will exist for Christmas Morning.
Damaging Wind / Large Hail Threat: If these storms hold off until the strong cold front arrives by early to mid-morning, then we'll be looking for more of a damaging wind event possible. There could also be some hail associated with stronger storms along that front, but overall the tornado threat should remain low -- although not 100% out of the question.
Isolated Tornado / Large Hail Threat: Depending on how quickly and how far north the warm front moves into the area tonight, more isolated & discrete thunderstorms will be possible. Those are the storms to watch for due to their ability to rotate and possibly bring on large hail (larger than the size of a quarter) and possibly even a tornado. The overall threat warrants a 5% to 10% chance -- which is enough for concern when it comes to severe weather. The warm front's position is expected to fall somewhere between a line from Caldwell to Bryan / College Station to Huntsville and the I-10 corridor.
Click the severe weather picture above for a slideshow of the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model.
Any storms that manage to form -- severe or not -- will move to the east and southeast by the noon hour. By mid-afternoon, as the strong cold front starts to work into the Brazos Valley, gusty winds will kick up from the north driving in much colder air and causing temperatures to fall off quickly by sunset.
Overnight lows are expected in the mid 20s to low 30s by Wednesday morning, with possible wind chills in the teens for parts of the Brazos Valley.
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