Tuesday Blog (10/22): Beautiful For Now -- Changes By Halloween
Updated: 10/22/2013 -
Helpful Links For Your Morning Commute
Tuesday Afternoon Update
The Flash Flood Watch for all of the Brazos Valley has now been allowed to expire. Much like with this morning's expiration of watches, there will still be some area roads that could have water collected on them -- so caution is advised while driving around this afternoon.
A handful of rainfall totals have come into the PinPoint Weather Center:
-Bryan / College Station (official): 2.38" which sets a new daily record for rainfall on this date
-Round Prairie: 2.18"
-Wixon Valley: 3.00"
The Flash Flood Watch for Austin, Brazos, Burleson, and Washington Counties has been allowed to expire early.
There are still a handful of roads in the area that are completely or partially covered in water this morning -- so just because the flash flood watch has ended, there could be some problematic areas left.
As mentioned, some area roads have water flowing over them. The picture below was taken by Clay Falls in Robertson County on a flooded Old Hearne Road
The Flash Flood Watch for Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties has been cancelled by the Ft. Worth National Weather Service.
Although, the flash flood watch has ended, there will continue to be problematic areas on area roads as localized area of minor flooding slowly recedes.
A FLOOD WARNING has been issued for the Navasota River for parts of Brazos, Madison and Grimes Counties and for the East Yegua Creek near Dimebox for Lee and Burleson Counties.
You can find the exact wording and official statement from the National Weather Service here.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Brazos Valley has been allowed to expire. Cooler temperatures in the 50s and the cold front passing have diminished the threat for severe weather.
Steady, moderate rain will continue to taper off from the west to the east through the morning hours, with most of the rain out of our area by noon.
Official rainfall, as of 9am, for Bryan / College Station is measuring in at 1.92" with many locations in the area reporting a little over 2" of rain.
A band of heavy rain continues across the very eastern portion of our area from S. San Jacinto County and through E. Montgomery County. Another shield of moderate to heavy rain continues across Milam, Burleson, Brazos, Washington and Austin Counties moving to the east.
Severe storms at this point are not expected, however, localized flooding may cause issues in parts of the area.
A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for Milam and Leon Counties near the Navasota River around Easterly.
At 7:30am, the river was at 9.35' and it's flood stage is set at 19.0'. Minor flooding is expected as the river could raise slightly over the flood stage by Wednesday midnight and crest between 21.5 and 22 feet by Thursday Afternoon. River should be back below flood stage by Saturday after midnight.
Last time this area saw a crest of this nature was back in March of 2007.
This is not in the Brazos Valley but for those interested there is a Tornado Warning for central Harris County. The tornado is located near Bunker Hill and moving NE at 30mph towards Houston.
Rainfall totals will continue to grow as this line of storms passes over the Brazos Valley. As of now we have received 1.72 inches at Easterwood, 2.3 inches just north of Giddings, and 1.78 inches in Snook.
Significant Weather Advisory is in effect for Grimes, Harris, Montgomery, and Waller Counties until 7:45AM.
Severe T-Storm warning has been issued for Austin, Waller, and Washington Counties until 6:30AM. This storm is capable of producing winds up to 60mph.
Significant Weather Advisory has been issued for Washington County until 9AM. Pea size hail will be the main threat in that area. As of now the storms have not reached the severe level.
Flash Flood Watch continues until 6PM for Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, and Washington counties.
At this time nothing is severe in the Brazos Valley. Stronger storms are continuing to form south of us allowing for the potential of stronger storm activity later in the morning. At this time there is a Tornado Warning near Karnes,TX(SE of San Antonio) associated with a cell moving NE at 40mph.
A Flood Advisory has been issued for Brazos and Burleson Counties until 6AM. The line of storms will continue to slowly move over the Brazos Valley through the morning hours. The line has weakened quite a bit allowing the Tornado Watch to expire for our viewing area. At this time nothing is severe in the Brazos Valley.
Severe T-Storm Warning cancelled for Milam County. There are reports of a road block on FM 908 south of Rockdale due to tree limbs.
The line of strong storms is moving into the Bryan/College Station area. Expect high winds, heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning. As of now nothing is severe.
Significant Weather Advisory has been issued for Brazos, Burleson, and Washington Counties until 3:15AM. This storm is capable of creating winds greater than 40mph, continuous cloud to ground lightning, and heavy downpours.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Milam County has brought strong winds to Cameron. Around 2am a radio report came in that large tree limbs had been knocked down at FM 1600 and CR 218. Road is reported blocked.
Tuesday 2am Update
The TORNADO WATCH for Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties have been extended until 4am.
Tuesday 1:42AM Update
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is in effect for Milam County until 2:15am. Quarter sized hail and winds in excess of 65mph are possible as this storm moves to the east at 45mph. This storm will be near Cameron around 1:50am.
Tuesday 1:15AM Update
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Lee, Madison, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller and Washington Counties effective until 9AM.
The line of strong to severe thunderstorms has crossed I-35 and will move into western Lee and Milam Counties between 1:30 and 2:00. We are still expecting the line of storms to make it into the Bryan/College Station area between 3:00 and 4:00AM.
The main severe weather threat appears to be damaging straight line winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out because of strong low to mid-level shear.
Monday 11:30PM Update
TORNADO WATCH continues for Leon, Robertson, and Milam Counties until 2AM and for Lee County until 1AM.
The line of strong to severe thunderstorms has reached I-35 from Temple and Waco northward, but that same line hangs back farther to the west over the Hill Country. It now appears that the storms will reach Austin and San Antonio between midnight and 1AM, into Bryan/College Station and surrounding areas between 3 and 4AM, and to the Huntsville area between 5 and 6AM.
The moderate risk area for severe weather has been shifted a little to the southeast and now includes Burleson, Brazos and Madison Counties. There will continue to be a threat for damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes when the line moves through the Brazos Valley, and new watches are likely after midnight.
The line of storms will move slowly across the region, increasing the threat of flooding. Computer model estimates for rainfall in our area range from about 2 to 5 inches. Once the line reaches us, the rain may continue for 5 to 6 hours, indicating that those computer estimates just might be on target.
Monday Evening Update
TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Leon, Robertson, and Milam Counties until 2AM. A tornado watch has been issued for Lee County until 1AM.
Severe storms are starting to develop across the Hill Country with several tornado warnings already being issued. These storms are expected to develop into a very large line that will approach the Brazos Valley a little after midnight. As the storms approach our area expect heavy rainfall, high winds, hail, and a possible tornado. Flooding could also be an issue with the amount of rainfall predicted and the slow movement of the line when it crosses the Brazos Valley.
Monday Afternoon Update
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been placed across all of the Brazos Valley through late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall expected overnight and into tomorrow could bring rain totals between 1 and 3 inches, with localized areas of 4 to 6 inches of rain.
A "watch" means that there is no flash flooding as of now, however, the conditions are right that there could be areas of localized flooding over the next 24 to 36 hours. Details form the National Weather Service's Flash Flood Watch can be found here.
From Bryan PD: The wind is already causing power outages in some areas of town, and the weather is projected to get bad over the next few days. If your power goes out, don't call 911 unless it is a medical emergency. For power outages call BTU at 979-822-3777 or College Station Utilities at 979-764-3535. Share this so we can inform all of Bryan College Station.
Monday Morning Update
A breezy to gusty morning across the Brazos Valley is just the start to what could be a rough 24 to 36 hours of weather for a good portion of our area and much of Central, North & East Texas.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MODERATE RISK (red) for severe weather in an area from San Antonio to East of Abilene through Dallas / Ft. Worth north into Oklahoma and as far east as the northern portions of the Brazos Valley (Milam, Robertson, Lee and Burleson Counties). Brazos County and Bryan / College Station were included in the original Moderate Risk that came out early today, but has since been removed -- although, Northern Brazos County is still included in the polygon. For those not in the red polygon, a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather will exist for today -- which has a slightly lower probability of any given spot within 25 miles to experience severe storms.
Ahead of the anticipation for severe weather, a WIND ADVISORY has been placed across most of the Brazos Valley. Winds, as of Monday morning, were already sustained at 15-25mph from the south / southeast, with reported wind gusts near 40mph at times. High profile vehicles should take caution traveling around the area -- especially if headed to the east or the west -- and if you like your lawn furniture, trash cans, Easter decorations etc, pulling them in closer to the house probably won't be the worst decision you make today.
Storm Impacts and Timing
--Time frame: Isolated thunderstorms will have a chance of popping up this afternoon. However, the bigger severe threat should remain in Central and North Texas today and then shift overnight towards the Brazos Valley and into tomorrow morning. Biggest window for severe storms: 1am through mid-morning Tuesday.
--Threats: Strong, damaging winds (excess of 60mph or greater) and heavy rain are the main concern. Some storms could produce large hail and isolated, embedded tornadoes are not out of the question as well.
--Heavy Rain: 1 to 3 inches of rain will be likely across much of the Brazos Valley. A few localized areas of 4 to 6 inches is not out of the question.
More Rain Tuesday Night / Wednesday?
It is possible, and some of the computer models -- including the PinPoint Forecast model are predicting just that as the large system driving tonight / tomorrow's severe weather stalls over the state. There are still some question marks, so we'll have to let a few more model runs come in. Areas that find the most rain on Tuesday may need to be monitored for flooding potential should more rain fall within this time frame.
Stay Ahead of the Weather
We'll be here through the night and tomorrow to track any severe weather that may blow in. Be sure that you have multiple sources for being informed about severe weather in case power or TV signal is lost. Should your cable or satellite go out due to a storm, remember that you can pick up KBTX on Digital 3.1 or streaming online at KBTX.com.
Since there is an overnight threat, be sure to have you NOAA Weather Radio plugged in and ready to go. Should a warning be issued for your area, an alarm will sound to wake you up. If you don't have a weather radio, there are a variety of apps for your phone that can be downloaded. For iphone users, iMapWeather Radio is a great app to download and will act just as a NOAA Weather Radio would. ($9.99 cost)
Of course all updates will be found on the homepage of KBTX.com and you can follow along for up the minute updates on our twitter page as well. If you are on twitter and have severe weather or damage to report tweet @KBTXWeather and use the hashtag #bvstorms.
Updated: 10/22/2013 -
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