Thursday Evening Weather Blog (3/13): Few Bumps Possible in Weekend Forecast

An absolutely fantastic day unfolded across the Brazos Valley Thursday. Blue skies will eventually lead to overcast conditions as moisture and warmer air return to the area. By the weekend, an approaching storm system could pop up strong to severe thunderstorms.

Spring is in the Air

It is getting to be that time. Clocks have been sent forward an hour, temperatures are starting to consistently top off at a mild level, and bugs / allergies are starting to plague some, once again.

As of Thursday, we are officially one week away from the start of the spring season. In fact, it officially kicks off at 11:57am, Thursday the 20th.

As we draw closer to the start of spring, our extended forecast is riddled with signs of the season. The 7 Day Forecast contains more 70° temperatures than anything else.

Over the next 48 to 72 hours, we'll look for more spring-like conditions to move into the Brazos Valley.

Slow Changes Friday

We'll wake up to temperatures in the 40s, Friday morning. The first difference you'll notice is scattered cloud cover that has moved back in, overhead. The day progresses and those clouds will continue to fill the sky. as we put the finishing touches on the final day of the work week. (Change #1)

Stepping out Friday afternoon will be a touch warmer than Thursday. Afternoon highs -- even with the increased cloud cover -- will top off in the upper 60s, to few low 70s. How we'll get there? An increased southerly breeze at 5-15mph, with the occasional gust upwards of 20mph. (Change #2)

Overall not a bad day on hand, at all -- just one that signals bigger changes by Saturday.

Spring-Like Weather Brings a Spring-Like Storm Chance

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Brazos Valley, and all of Texas east of I-35, under a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe weather Saturday (area in yellow).

While this is a broad area -- the forecast is still vague enough to leave a wide section of the state open for the *possibility* of a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. As we continue through the next 24 to 48 hours, we should start to see that yellow risk area become a little better defined.

Potential Risks?

Should strong to severe thunderstorms manage to fire up, we don't anticipate them to move into the Brazos Valley until late afternoon / early evening.

Main Concerns:


  • Hail

  • Damaging Winds -- in excess of 50-60mph

While we will need to monitor the situation, we have a few things going for us:


  1. Storms will likely form in a line and move south towards the Brazos Valley -- meaning we'll be able to watch and assess the situation at hand.

  2. With activity not anticipated until the evening (aka time where loss of daytime heat is occurring), storms *could* fall apart as / before they move into the area.

Greatest Area of Concern
We'll put the biggest chance (for now) across the Northern Brazos Valley. We'll call it a line from Caldwell to Bryan / College Station to Madisonville to Crockett, and all points north.

Something To Keep an Eye On

That's exactly the best way to describe this forecast.

We'll continue to monitor the latest data is it pours out. For now, this is a chance, but but not an absolute given.

We'll bring you the latest through the day on KBTX, and of course, we'll get you updated in tomorrow's Friday Evening Weather Blog.

Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley


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