Thursday Night Weather Blog (12/19): Weekend Storm Concerns

For warm weather lovers, the holiday's have brought a springtime feel to the Brazos Valley. Breezy to gusty south winds are bringing up temperatures and moisture -- our next cold front moving in this weekend will bring a storm chance and cooler temperatures.

Storm Chance Increasing

As of Thursday evening, our upper-level storm system, of concern, was gaining strength over Southern California.

As this upper low continues to barrel east, winds, clouds, and temperatures all increase on Friday. We'll look for south winds sustained 10-15mph, with gusts upwards of 25 mph -- alongside temperatures in the mid / upper 70s. Spotty showers -- 30% -- will be possible from time-to-time as we wrap up the work & school week.

SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center placed the Brazos Valley under a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms Saturday -- along with most of Central & East Texas. (as of Thursday morning's update)

Of that SLIGHT RISK, the Central and Eastern Brazos Valley is included in the highest probability to see a few severe thunderstorms Saturday:

Main Concerns should severe thunderstorms organize Saturday --
-- Damaging winds in excess of 50-60mph or more
-- Brief, isolated tornado threat embedded in a line of thunderstorms

Window for Storms / Concerning Weather

Our main storm chance will slide across the Brazos Valley from mid-morning to mid / late afternoon.

As of Thursday, it looks like we'll see isolated storms try to develop during the few hours following sunrise.

A line of thunderstorms will attempt to form and slide into the area from the northwest. Should that line come together, it will move into the northwestern Brazos Valley shortly before the noon hour and looks to be east of I-45 / eastern counties by 5pm.

Thursday Evening PinPoint Computer Forecast Model -- Forecast of what the radar *may* look like through the day on Saturday:

It is that "wish bone" shape the PinPoint model shows that is most concerning to us.

As an area of low pressure moves east across North Texas, a "triple point" between the low, a warm front (to the west of the low), and a line drier air (to the east / southeast of the low) looks to set up. Triple points typically lead to an outbreak of severe thunderstorms.

Cooler By Sunday

Saturday marks the first official day of Winter -- and we are looking at springtime temperatures and storms.

Sunday marks the second official day of Winter -- and we'll look for temperatures to be chilly / back down below "normal" for this time of year.

Sunshine returns, but highs struggle to reach the 50s alongside a cold north / northwest wind blowing 10-20mph and gusting upwards of 25mph. Temperatures will dip to around freezing Monday and Christmas Eve morning, while highs only manage the low & mid 50s, respectfully.

Christmas Forecast

A chilly start to Christmas morning with lows in the upper 30s. We'll find a cool afternoon in the upper 50s -- clouds start to increase late in the day helping to pause our full warming potential. A few, light showers may pop up late in the day...especially for our western counties. Overall rain chance is only a 20% shot for now. Overall...not a bad holiday forecast for the Brazos Valley!

We'll continue to keep a sharp eye on the storm potential over the weekend. While the ingredients look just right for severe thunderstorms, a change in timing could keep most of the activity away. We'll have another update for you, here at KBTX.com, by Friday evening.
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley


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