Wednesday Evening Weather Blog (12/18): Changes Lead to Thunderstorms

The abundant sunshine, in the Brazos Valley, has been fantastic over the past couple of days. Hopefully you were able to soak it all in -- clouds are on the increase heading into Wednesday morning. Those are just the beginning of changes to the weather pattern...

Waking up In a Fog

Cloudy skies, cool 50s, and patchy areas of fog are expected as you hop out of bed and into your Thursday morning.

Overnight lows typically fall into the low 40s for this time of the year. We'll wake up a good 10° or so above that "typical" as we start Friday Eve:

Wednesday, December 19th, 2013 expected lows. Click to enlarge

Bumpy Weekend Weather Ahead

Planning on heading out of town early for the holidays? Christmas parties planned on Saturday? You'll want to keep an eye on the weather, as we expected some changing conditions.

Our latest upper-level weather maker is coming together over Southern California and should start to become quite the system over the next 24 to 48 hours.

As that system slowly moves to the east, we'll look for increased cloud cover, breezy to gusty winds, warmer temperatures, and a chance for rain to move back into the forecast.

Here's the general theme for Thursday:

By Saturday, we'll be on the lookout for thunderstorms moving in from the west. Some of those storms could be on the strong to severe side.

Weekend Severe Weather Potential

Earlier Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center put out a Day 4 outline for potential severe weather. That outline included a majority of the Brazos Valley.

While it is not a 100% sure bet that we'll find severe thunderstorms here in our backyard, it looks likely for parts of East and Central Texas.

As our upper low moves into the Texas Panhandle, and then swings across the Red River to the east, we'll look for a line of thunderstorms to form and slide to the south and southeast.

Main Threats should we find severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds in excess of 50mph to 60mph. It cannot be ruled out that a brief, isolated tornado threat may occur as well.

Main Timing for thunderstorm activity looks to be between 4pm Saturday and midnight Sunday in the Brazos Valley.

While it is a severe weather potential here at home -- the Panhandle and parts of Western Oklahoma will be looking for possible freezing rain to switch over to snow Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Here's a look at any travel concerns we'll face in the Lone Star State Saturday:

Chilly Air Returns Sunday

All this storm potential talk will be spurred on by our next cold front to reach the Brazos Valley.

We'll wake up to north / northwesterly winds Sunday and find temperatures struggling to hold onto the 50s by the afternoon.

Christmas Eve looks to be on the sunny and cool side, while Christmas Day brings back a bit of cloud cover and seasonable afternoon temperatures.

Plenty of tweaking and fine tuning to be done to the forecast -- especially for where and when our specific threats are on Saturday. We'll bring another check on the situation to KBTX.com Thursday evening.
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley


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