A drizzle filled day was the theme for the Brazos Valley Wednesday. No need to put the umbrella up just yet -- we'll continue with a rain chance on Thursday and Friday. Significant rainfall and strong storms could be in the cards to wrap the week up.
Not Even a Drop in the Rain Gauge
Wednesday's drizzle is the first rainfall the Brazos Valley has received since the weekend before Christmas.
Cloudy skies & drizzle were caused by a process known as "Overrunning" -- where cool air at the surface is "run over" by warmer & moist winds from the south.
Even with that overrunning drizzle falling most of the day, rain totals were pretty bleak. Here's a look at where the gauge sits as of 8pm:
No worries -- more significant rain looks to try to fall...
A weak disturbance will skirt across Oklahoma and North Texas on Thursday. That will drag a weak boundary into the Brazos Valley, leading to rain chances once again.
While it is still a bit uncertain exactly where that boundary will ultimately settle up, there are positive signs that it will stall somewhere across the Brazos Valley. Here's the latest from our Regional PinPoint Computer Forecast Model:
15km PinPoint Forecast Computer Model:
At most we are looking for 0.25" to 0.50" of new rainfall by the end of business Thursday.
Friday Rainfall Promising
If you are going to put your chips on a day for rain -- Friday is the "all in on red."
As an upper-level systems swings down from the Pacific Northwest and across Texas Friday / Saturday, our rain chances will increase Friday afternoon / Friday evening.
We'll likely see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms attempt to form and blow west to east across the area. A few showers could bring brief moderate to heavy rainfall. In fact, one or two strong to severe thunderstorms are not 100% out of the question.
Should a storm become strong to briefly severe, gusty winds in excess of 50mph would be the main threat. The overall severe threat only sits at a 5% chance.
With rainfall starting as early as the time your alarm starts ringing Thursday morning, don't forget you can always get the latest by checking Interactive PinPoint Radar.
We'll be watching the radar Thursday -- be sure to grab that umbrella. We'll touch back Thursday evening, here on the weather page, to talk more about Friday's rain / storm potential.
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley