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What we’re monitoring: Rain chances, Saharan dust returns, and the tropics are waking up

Rounding out the month of June lacking in the rainfall department
Daily high temperature trend with rain chances for the Brazos Valley for the week of 6/29 to 7/4.
Daily high temperature trend with rain chances for the Brazos Valley for the week of 6/29 to 7/4.(KBTX)
Published: Jun. 28, 2020 at 11:03 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - As we approach the final days of June, rainfall for most of the Brazos Valley looks slim. On average, June should be our second wettest month, which is typically much welcomed rain before the dry summer months settle in.

Average rainfall totals are much higher in June than July and August as we start to shift to a drier and hotter weather pattern in Southeast Texas.
Average rainfall totals are much higher in June than July and August as we start to shift to a drier and hotter weather pattern in Southeast Texas.(KBTX)

It’s been a generally dry month as a very summer-like pattern set up early in the month and held us to minimal rain chances through the first half of June.

Where we stand in terms of rainfall in Bryan and College Station 6/28
Where we stand in terms of rainfall in Bryan and College Station 6/28(KBTX)

While rain chances are not completely off the table this week, the chances are low and many look to stay dry as high pressure builds in by the second half of the week bringing back the heat and humidity while squashing our rain chances ahead of the Fourth of July weekend as this high pressure system moves west.

High pressure builds in the Gulf moisture to help fuel small chances for rain Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure builds in the Gulf moisture to help fuel small chances for rain Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.(KBTX)

Another big topic of discussion this month was the arrival of some Saharan dust. After the first round of dust made its appearance across the Gulf Coast states this past week, a second round comes barreling into Southeast Texas this week bringing back a hazy sky as well as some sniffling and sneezing. The dust will be noticeable as early as Tuesday with a stronger concentration of dust settling in across the Brazos Valley Thursday and Friday.

The second plume of Saharan dust returns to the Lone Star State Tuesday.
The second plume of Saharan dust returns to the Lone Star State Tuesday.(KBTX)
The second plume of Saharan dust returns to the Lone Star State Tuesday and lingers through Friday.
The second plume of Saharan dust returns to the Lone Star State Tuesday and lingers through Friday.(KBTX)

If we can get large plumes of dust to drift out into the Atlantic Ocean, like the first round we saw last week and the one waiting for us this week, it will hinder organized showers and storms from developing. These Saharan Air Layers are generally associated with very warm temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere and drier air -- both ingredients not conducive for maintaining thunderstorm activity. However, now that these plumes have left the tropical Atlantic Basin, showers and storms have been able to become a bit better organized and there are two areas of interest being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in Miami as of Sunday night.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of interest for some slight development possible over the next five days. Both areas of interest are given low odds of organized tropical development as of 6/28.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of interest for some slight development possible over the next five days. Both areas of interest are given low odds of organized tropical development as of 6/28.(KBTX)

The area east of the Windward Islands near the Caribbean is given low 10% odds of development over the next five days at this disorganized cluster of showers and storms continue to battle a less than favorable environment. Further to the north and closer to the United States, an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the East Coast. Some development is possible later this week, though chances are still only 20% over the next five days, before this area of low pressure interacts with some much colder waters in the Atlantic.

Overall, it looks to be a relatively quiet week ahead for the Brazos Valley, feeling very tropical and sweating our way into July.

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