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Cold front is coming to Texas, but is it coming to the Brazos Valley?

Inconsistent model data throws a few question marks into the forecast.
A cold front is slated to push through the State of Texas Wednesday and into Thursday, but how...
A cold front is slated to push through the State of Texas Wednesday and into Thursday, but how far south will it make it?(KBTX)
Published: Sep. 7, 2020 at 5:58 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - After a week of data that supported a cold front pushing through the Brazos Valley this week, the latest forecast guidance has not entirely been on early fall’s side.

As of Monday afternoon, three out of four forecast models were not as optimistic that a front would make its way down into our neck of the woods. The current overall consensus of the data moves the front into North Texas Thursday morning, then it stalls before it is able to slide into the southeastern portion of the state.

What does this mean for the Brazos Valley? A reasonable outlook for now; forecast highs in the mid-80s Thursday afternoon followed by a gradual warm-up to the 90s this weekend. As it stands, morning temperatures most likely will not dip low enough to justify true pumpkin-spice weather.

Inconsistent model data throws a few question marks into the forecast.
Inconsistent model data throws a few question marks into the forecast.(KBTX)

Even though the odds are not completely in favor of a cool down, there are still plenty of details to fine-tune through the next 24 hours. One forecast model that typically does well with frontal timings and positions wants to sling fall air into the Brazos Valley Thursday. Though it is the outlier in portraying a more positive outcome for the Brazos Valley, given a positive track record in the past, we can hold on to a slight glimmer of hope that at least our northwestern counties might be able to tap into a few 60s come Thursday morning.

Inconsistent model data throws a few question marks into the forecast, with the the potential...
Inconsistent model data throws a few question marks into the forecast, with the the potential for a few of us to see cooler temperatures.(KBTX)

Regardless, if the Brazos Valley is able to tap into cooler temperatures and an early shot at fall-like weather, the rain and storm chance is a bit more promising heading into the middle of the week.

Regardless on if cooler temperatures can filter into the Brazos Valley, the rain and storm...
Regardless on if cooler temperatures can filter into the Brazos Valley, the rain and storm chances look to be a little more promising.(KBTX)

A seabreeze tries to spark up more widespread coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday. It a 50% chance, with the better rain chance (~60%) holding off until Wednesday. While a good portion of the Brazos Valley looks to tap into some rainfall this week, those who can find the activity in their backyard could find up to 0.5″ with some localized totals up to 1″ in the gauge.

More widespread chances for rain filter back into the forecast with a 50% chance for rain...
More widespread chances for rain filter back into the forecast with a 50% chance for rain Tuesday and a 60% chance Wednesday.(KBTX)

There are still a lot of details to hash out over the next 24-48 hours as this front works it’s way to the south. With the upcoming rain and storm chance and holding on to wishful thinking for cooler temperatures, keep your PinPoint Weather App handy for updates on the very latest.

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