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Another tropical system expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico today

National Hurricane Center expects a tropical depression or storm to form Thursday
A new tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to develop Thursday
A new tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to develop Thursday(KBTX)
Published: Sep. 17, 2020 at 4:23 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 17, 2020 at 9:13 AM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Just as Hurricane Sally finally crawled out of the Gulf of Mexico, the next tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form Thursday.

After an increase in rain and thunderstorm activity overnight, the disturbance now holds a high 90% chance for development. Here are the latest details as of the 7am Thursday tropical update:

Current forecast models call for this system to reside where it is over the next 24-36 hours before moving to the north-northeast. As of now, forecast models curve it back to the west / southwest as it bumps into a front that is slated to drape over the Northern Gulf.

A disturbance i the Southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical depression or storm Thursday
A disturbance i the Southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical depression or storm Thursday(KBTX)

Without a well-defined circulation, those models will continue to grasp at straws until a better understanding of conditions is known. Due to the high uncertainty, those along the Texas and Louisiana coast need to keep an eye on this one over the coming days. No single forecast model has enough data to bring confidence on how this could evolve and where it may drift.

WHAT WE DO KNOW:

  • A weak cold front will drift through Texas Friday. That shifts a northerly flow over the state and keeps anything in the Gulf blocked for the weekend. It is likely the reason many forecast models drift this potential tropical system to the northeast only to turn it back to the south or southwest by early next week.
  • The western Gulf of Mexico has been untouched by tropical activity since Hurricane Hanna passed through in late July. Regardless of when development occurs, this area of interest will either drift through or sit over a pocket of warm water both at and below the surface. Short of the long: there is plenty of warm water to feed tropical development. A new tropical storm is not a far-fetched idea by late weekend or early next week.

More details as we learn then and have them. Again, concern for the Texas Coast and Brazos Valley is still LOW Thursday. We will keep you updated as we learn more.

Thursday Live Weather Update

Couple storms possible, but COOLER weather is on the way, and we're watching the Gulf for you. Here's the latest.

Posted by KBTX Media on Thursday, September 17, 2020

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