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Another tropical system expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico over next few days

National Hurricane Center expects a tropical depression to form by or over the weekend
Invest 90L has a HIGH chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Invest 90L has a HIGH chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.(KBTX)
Published: Sep. 16, 2020 at 8:58 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Just as Hurricane Sally finally crawled out of the Gulf of Mexico, attention shifts back to the open water.

A disturbance that has been meandering the Gulf since this past weekend now has a high (70%) chance for tropical development over the next five days. Here are the latest details as of the 7pm Wednesday tropical update:

Current forecast models are slow to drift this potential system to the north and northeast through the weekend and early next week. Without a well-defined circulation, those models will continue to grasp at straws until a better understanding of conditions is known. Due to the high uncertainty, those along the Texas and Louisiana coast need to keep an eye on this one over the coming days. No single forecast model has enough data to bring confidence on how this could evolve and where it may drift.

WHAT WE DO KNOW:

  • A weak cold front will drift through Texas Friday. That shifts a northerly flow over the state and keeps anything in the Gulf blocked for the weekend. It is likely the reason many forecast models drift this potential tropical system to the northeast only to turn it back to the south or southwest by early next week.
  • The western Gulf of Mexico has been untouched by tropical activity since Hurricane Hanna passed through in late July. Regardless of when development occurs, this area of interest will either drift through or sit over a pocket of warm water both at and below the surface. Short of the long: there is plenty of warm water to feed tropical development. A new tropical storm is not a far-fetched idea by late weekend or early next week.
Invest 90L will sit over very warm water in the Gulf
Invest 90L will sit over very warm water in the Gulf(KBTX)

More details as we learn then and have them. Again, concern for the Texas Coast and Brazos Valley is LOW as of Wednesday evening. That is something that could change as the clock advances through the weekend.

Copyright 2020 KBTX. All rights reserved.

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