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Weekend storm system brings needed rain, isolated severe potential

Turning wet as early as Black Friday morning
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.(KBTX)
Published: Nov. 26, 2020 at 11:16 AM CST
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - While we fill our bellies on a tranquil, comfortably warm Thanksgiving Thursday, gulf moisture will slowly seep back into the area and bring a return to muggy weather by Friday morning.

Our next storm system is still on track to bring us the best chance for widespread, soaking rains that we have seen all fall.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.(KBTX)

Friday: Headed out to do some early shopping Friday morning? Weather should be cooperative by then, but we could find a few light showers to go along with the big rush of morning muggy. The better chance of storms for the day may in fact wait until after lunch time, but be prepared for our first round of storms as early as late morning, especially south. Our first few rounds of storms are expected through the afternoon, and this is where we carry our highest severe potential for the weekend. The the threat is on the lower end, the initial burst of storms ahead of the front will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, and perhaps some hail up to quarter size. As the front moves through, we shift more to a heavy rain and lightning threat through the evening and perhaps a bit into the overnight.

Saturday: The next round of showers and storms could come ahead of wake up time, so prep for Saturday to at least start wet. By this point, we expect to be on the cooler side of the approaching front, so severe weather doesn’t look likely, but heavy rain and lightning will still be a possibility especially for the first half of Saturday. The general thought is as the day wears on, while more rounds of rain are likely, they shouldn’t pack as heavy of a punch, with lightning not as likely, and rain generally lighter. That said, outdoor plans may need to come with a poncho and a good, sturdy jacket underneath, as we may not break the 60 degree mark Saturday with a healthy north breeze.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected as early as Friday morning.(KBTX)

By Sunday, most of us will begin to clear, especially north, but a few lingering showers can’t be ruled out. We will likely see a return to full-blown sunshine by the end of the day Sunday, leading into a beautiful but cold last day of November.

Numbers still need to be fine tuned, but widespread amounts of 1-3″ with localized totals of 4″+ are not off the table by the end of the weekend, especially south. Generally, we expect coverage and overall rainfall to be higher the farther south you go.

Raw model data favors our southern counties and areas closest to the coast for heaviest rain...
Raw model data favors our southern counties and areas closest to the coast for heaviest rain this weekend, but we're still expecting a healthy helping through the first half of the weekend.(KBTX)

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