Temperatures around 90° Friday as we monitor for isolated severe storms
What. a. wild. storm. Severe weather that moved through the Brazos Valley Thursday night has come to an end. Winds could peak between 20 and 30mph through the rest of the night, but otherwise, we are quiet and calm weather-wise. After a cloudy start, sunshine and a breezy / gusty south-southwest wind will push afternoon highs to the upper 80s and low 90s (if we get there, the first 90° readings of 2021 for the Brazos Valley). There is a storm chance Friday afternoon to early evening, but it is highly conditional and isolated. Here are the details:
- The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for isolated severe weather Friday afternoon & evening
- That risk increases to a 2 out of 5 risk for Leon, Houston, and Trinity Counties
- Overall storm chance is low & conditional locally. However, if a storm can beat the odds & form, it may quickly become strong/severe with large hail (golf ball size or larger) being the main concern.
- Storms would form on the dryline between I-35 and the Western Brazos Valley then move east if they do manage to form
- Forecast highs are in the upper 80s / low 90s. Convective temperature (what it takes to pop up a storm on heat alone) is forecast in the mid-90s.
- Most of the Brazos Valley is expected to remain storm-free if these manage to form between 3pm and 7pm
- More likely development is expected between Dallas and Waco. Those storms would grow upscale and move east. As they do, wind will become the greatest concern north and northeast of the Brazos Valley into the evening hours.
- This is where the 2 out of 5 risk comes in -- strong wind gusts could be possible between 8pm and 10pm if that complex of storms scrapes past the far Northeastern Brazos Valley.
All of this to be said, the odds for storms are low but not zero Friday afternoon and early evening. Due to the fact that any storm that forms will likely become severe, it will be a good time to keep the KBTX PinPoint Weather App close. Scattered showers are in the works the pre-sunrise hours of Saturday as a cold front arrives. Lower humidity, breezy, and many sub-80° as we start the weekend.
Thursday Night: Storms end. Increasing clouds. Low: 67. Wind: S 10-15 mph, gusting 25-30 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance for late rain and storms. Isolated strong-to-severe storms. High: 90. Wind: SSW 10-20 mph, gusting 25-30 mph.
Friday Night: Cloudy with a 40% chance for rain and an isolated storm. Low: 62. Wind: N 5-15 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 79. Wind: N 10-20 mph.
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