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Another day to stay weather aware ahead of a beautiful weekend

Published: Apr. 9, 2021 at 4:41 AM CDT|Updated: Apr. 9, 2021 at 12:41 PM CDT
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A noisy and damaging Thursday night now turns to a muggy and cloudy start to Friday. We will once again have a “wait and see” approach to Friday as we warm to near 90. Once again, a dryline sets up and we watch the radar out west to see if any storms develop while we cook a bit in the afternoon sun. IF storms form, severe weather will be possible.

  • The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for isolated severe weather Friday afternoon & evening
  • That risk increases to a 2 out of 5 risk for Leon, Houston, and Trinity Counties
  • Overall storm chance is low & conditional locally. However, if a storm can beat the odds & form, it may quickly become strong/severe with large hail (golf ball size or larger) being the main concern.
  • Storms would form on the dryline between I-35 and the Western Brazos Valley then move east if they do manage to form
  • Forecast highs are in the upper 80s / low 90s. Convective temperature (what it takes to pop up a storm on heat alone) is forecast in the mid-90s.
  • Most of the Brazos Valley is expected to remain storm-free if these manage to form between 3pm and 7pm
  • More likely development is expected between Dallas and Waco. Those storms would grow upscale and move east. As they do, wind will become the greatest concern north and northeast of the Brazos Valley into the evening hours.
  • This is where the 2 out of 5 risk comes in -- strong wind gusts could be possible between 8pm and 10pm if that complex of storms scrapes past the far Northeastern Brazos Valley.

All of this to be said, the odds for storms are low but not zero Friday afternoon and early evening. Due to the fact that any storm that forms will likely become severe, it will be a good time to keep the KBTX PinPoint Weather App close. Scattered showers are in the works the pre-sunrise hours of Saturday as a cold front arrives. Lower humidity, breezy, and many sub-80° as we start the weekend.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance for late rain and storms. Isolated strong-to-severe storms. High: 90. Wind: SSW 10-20 mph, gusting 25-30 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a 40% chance for rain and an isolated storm. Low: 62. Wind: N 5-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 79. Wind: N 10-20 mph.

Saturday Night: Mainly clear and cool. Low: 52. Wind: Becoming S 5-10 mph.

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