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Tropical development possible in southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week

Monitoring for potential Gulf Coast impacts near Fathers Day Weekend
Published: Jun. 12, 2021 at 8:25 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 12, 2021 at 1:08 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

With the Saturday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center, there are no changes from the Saturday morning update that upped the chances for tropical development of this low pressure system to:

  • 48-hour: 10% (low)
  • 5-Day: 40% (medium)

According to the National Hurricane Center, “a tropical depression could form by mid-week.” As of Saturday afternoon, satellite imagery showed an unorganized area of clouds and rain that have developed in and near the Bay of Campeche. This area of interest is expected to move “slowly and erratically” and is anticipated to generally remain in the Southern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday or Thursday. This will mean heavy rain for parts of Mexico and Central America.

While this is something to monitor closely in the coming days, as of right now this is no immediate concern for Southeast Texas or the Brazos Valley. The reason being -- there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the strength and track of this system since the area of low pressure in question hasn’t formed yet. Bottom line: this is something that we are going to monitor closely over the next few days. While much uncertainty remains for what this could become or the path it will take, expectations are the development odds will continue to increase in the coming days.

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