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Tropical development possible in southern Gulf of Mexico later this week

Monitoring for potential Gulf Coast impacts around Fathers Day Weekend
Published: Jun. 12, 2021 at 7:14 PM CDT|Updated: Jun. 13, 2021 at 6:53 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure producing disorganized rain and cloudiness over the Bay of Campeche.

With the Sunday evening update from the National Hurricane Center noted little change in the organization of rain and storms in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Due to that, no significant changes were made from the previous, afternoon update. Development odds are as follows:

  • 48-hour: 20% (low)
  • 5-Day: 50% (medium)

According to the National Hurricane Center, “a large area of showers and thunderstorms...is associated with a broad area of low pressure. The overall system has become somewhat better organized since [Saturday].” This area of interest, now knowns as Invest 92L, could slowly develop over the next few days as it meanders near the coast of Mexico. A tropical depression may form late in the week when the system begins to slowly move northward.

Weak steering currents are expected to keep this area of interest moving “slowly and erratically” in the Southern Gulf of Mexico through late in the week. This will mean heavy rain for parts of Mexico and Central America.

While this is something to monitor closely in the coming days, as of right now this is no immediate concern for Southeast Texas or the Brazos Valley. The reason being -- there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the strength and track of this system since the area of low pressure in question hasn’t formed yet. Bottom line: this is something that we are going to monitor closely over the next several days. While much uncertainty remains for what this could become or the path it will take, expectations are the development odds could continue to increase in the coming days.

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