High chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this week

Impacts from this potential tropical system could reach the Gulf Coast by Father’s Day Weekend
Published: Jun. 15, 2021 at 7:34 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 15, 2021 at 9:47 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure producing disorganized rain and cloudiness over the Bay of Campeche.

The corrected Tuesday evening update from the National Hurricane Center slightly upgraded the chance for tropical development over the next two days. Indications continue to point to some sort of tropical development before the end of the week as this system moves north. From the latest update, development odds are:

  • 48-hour: 50% (medium)
  • 5-Day: 80% (high)

According to the National Hurricane Center, “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area.” This area of interest, now known as Invest 92L, will slowly develop over the next few days as it meanders near the coast of Mexico. Once the system begins moving north by Thursday, a “tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.” Heavy rain could reach portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Friday.

Weak steering currents are expected to keep this area of interest moving “slowly and erratically” in the Southern Gulf of Mexico through mid-to-late week. This will mean heavy rain for parts of Mexico and Central America. That slow, erratic motion is what is keeping us from giving the “all-clear” for this weekend, as a well-defined center of circulation has not and will likely not be found for at least the next couple of days. This decreases overall confidence in where the system will go as the week presses on. What is expected, the highest impacts from this system -- whatever it becomes -- is anticipated east of the center. Upper-level winds along the Texas and Gulf Coast are expected to push the higher supply of tropical moisture to the east of the eventual center of circulation.

While this is something to monitor closely in the coming days, as of right now this is no immediate concern for Southeast Texas or the Brazos Valley. The reason being -- there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the strength and track of this system since the area of low pressure in question hasn’t formed yet. Bottom line: this is something that we are going to monitor closely over the next several days. While much uncertainty remains for what this could become or the path it will take, expectations are the development odds could continue to increase in the coming days.

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