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Eyes remain on Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development

Likelihood is high for at least a tropical depression to form over the next 48 hours
Published: Jun. 16, 2021 at 5:04 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 16, 2021 at 7:40 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure producing disorganized rain and cloudiness over the Bay of Campeche.

The Wednesday evening update from the National Hurricane Center slightly upgraded the chance for tropical development to 80% over the next two days. Indications continue to point to some sort of tropical development before the end of the week as this system moves north. From the latest update, development odds are:

  • 48-hour: 80% (high)
  • 5-Day: 90% (high)

According to the National Hurricane Center, the rain and storm activity associated with the broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has become a bit more organized since Tuesday. The system will meander over this general area through the overnight ahead of moving northward on Thursday. A tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or Friday as this area of low pressure moves across the waters in the western Gulf. Until it embarks on its northern track, the activity associated with the system will continue to provide heavy rain for parts of Mexico and Central America. Upper-level winds along the Texas and Gulf Coast are expected to push the higher supply of tropical moisture to the east of the eventual center of circulation.

What does that mean for the Brazos Valley? Essentially, no immediate concern as of now. Model guidance Wednesday has kept the trend of the center of circulation staying east of the area. We’ll watch closely as more reliable data is received over the next 24 hours, but the larger impacts (heavy rain, strong winds) will be found east of the center of circulation. Those on the west side -- including the Brazos Valley as of now -- could see a few tropical downpours Saturday, but significantly less rainfall and warm temperatures are expected.

Larger impacts from the tropical system moving through the Gulf will be found to the east of...
Larger impacts from the tropical system moving through the Gulf will be found to the east of the center of circulation.(KBTX)

Though the numbers below may wobble a bit over the next few days, we’ll maintain a scattered rain chance for Saturday, especially east, for our greatest potential impacts from this system. We will continue to fine tune the forecast as we get closer to the weekend, and get more consistent information.

While some of these numbers may change over the next 48 hours (especially regarding the...
While some of these numbers may change over the next 48 hours (especially regarding the weekend), we'll keep eyes on the potential to see a bit of moisture move in from the tropical system in the Gulf, though the bulk of it looks to sit east(KBTX)

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