Tropical system likely to form soon, trending drier for Brazos Valley
Few downpours still possible Saturday
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure producing disorganized rain and cloudiness over the Bay of Campeche.
The Thursday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center slightly upgraded the chance for tropical development to 90% over the next two days. Indications continue to point to some sort of tropical development before the end of the week as this system moves north. From the latest update, development odds are:
- 48-hour: 90% (high)
- 5-Day: 90% (high)
An Air Force recon aircraft will fly into the circulation of this system today, giving us immediate better data to work with in forecasting the track of this potential system, but until it embarks on its northern track, the activity associated with the system will continue to provide heavy rain for parts of Mexico and Central America. Upper-level winds along the Texas and Gulf Coast are expected to push the higher supply of tropical moisture to the east of the eventual center of circulation.
What does that mean for the Brazos Valley? Essentially, no immediate concern as of now. Model guidance Wednesday has kept the trend of the center of circulation staying east of the area. We’ll watch closely as more reliable data is received over the next 24 hours, but the larger impacts (heavy rain, strong winds) will be found east of the center of circulation. Those on the west side -- including the Brazos Valley as of now -- could see a few tropical downpours Saturday, but significantly less rainfall and warm temperatures are expected.
Though the numbers below may wobble a bit over the next few days, we’ll maintain a scattered rain chance for Saturday, especially east, for our greatest potential impacts from this system. We will continue to fine tune the forecast as we get closer to the weekend, and get more consistent information.
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