Messy start to Monday: rain and storms expected first half of the day
A weak cold front spent the day Sunday sagging ever-so-slowly into the northern reaches of Texas. While this front is not expected to reach the Brazos Valley, it will bring the opportunity to spark off rain and storms overnight / pre-sunrise Monday to bring a rainy, rumbly, and soggy start to the new work week. Storms have been active north of the Brazos Valley Sunday evening, with a few flooding concerns springing up under slow-moving storms. Into the overnight, we will monitor for storms between Corsicana and Centerville / Crockett for new development anytime between 2am and 6am. While the start time is still a bit of a toss-up, the outcome should be the same: rain and thunderstorms that slowly drift through parts of the area during the first half of Monday.
Initially, any storms that develop between midnight and sunrise could produce strong, damaging wind gusts upwards of 40-60mph -- this will be an exception rather than a rule. Still, strong storms initially will likely contain gusty wind, lightning, and heavy rain. Wind pushing out of these storms will slice through the instability in place (think fuel for the storms) which should tame the bigger activity as we get into the morning. Depending on how this comes together, some (namely western counties) are expected to pick up little in the way of rain. Others have the opportunity to grab another 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rain before 3pm Monday. What will need to be monitored: localized higher totals between 2″ and 4″+. A few, minor flood concerns may arise before lunch if this pans out. Skies are expected to dry by the afternoon. Overcast and the rain chance at hand should hold temperatures well below average for July 12th, only topping off around the mid-80s.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance for rain and thunderstorms. Low: 75. Wind: S 5-10 mph.
Monday: Cloudy with a 60% chance for rain and thunderstorms. Isolated heavy rain possible. High: 85. Wind: SE 5-15 mph.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 73. Wind: S 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance for afternoon rain and storms. High: 92. Wind: SSE 5-10 mph.
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