Odds up for development as tropics heat up

Eyes on early to middle of next week for Gulf of Mexico
Published: Aug. 24, 2021 at 7:33 AM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Morning model runs bring a touch more persistence in a Gulf of Mexico system by next week, but there is just as much uncertainty to go along with it.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded a weak area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean to a medium-high chance for development near the Yucatan Peninsula within the next 5 days. Chance for any organization is low in the short term, which will provide more difficulty in the forecast in that same time frame, due to little center of circulation for model data to focus on. In the meantime, we know we have an area to monitor, and should begin to get a better picture later this week.

Bottom line: This is far from something that should bring us worry, and any forecast you see calling for specifics at this point are likely not going to be correct. We will continue to keep watch of this system as we go through the week, and monitor any big changes and adjust next week’s forecast as necessary.

The next named storms of the season would be called Ida, Julian, and Kate when they form. These three potential tropical systems come quickly after Fred, Grace, and Henri made landfall over the past week and a half in Florida, Mexico, and Rhode Island, respectfully.

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