Tropical development likely in the Gulf of Mexico by or before next week

Published: Aug. 25, 2021 at 7:31 AM CDT|Updated: Aug. 25, 2021 at 1:38 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - There is growing confidence that some sort of tropical system will form in the Caribbean later this week, and travel into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center, in step with widespread model data, has upped our already much-watched tropical wave in the southern Caribbean to a high (80%) chance for development into a tropical depression or stronger within the next 5 days.

While confidence in formation has grown, there is still a large amount of uncertainty on exactly where this system will go, but this will be worth monitoring from Mexico to Mississippi.

The system is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Forecasters at the National Hurricane center note that conditions will likely be favorable then for additional development.

For the Brazos Valley: To re-iterate, there is far from a reason for concern at this point. IF we are to see any impacts from this system, the time frame is becoming more clear as an early/mid week NEXT week. Beyond saying some heavy rain and added wind is possible, there is not much more we know, yet.

Uncertainty still high as the system hasn't formed yet.
Uncertainty still high as the system hasn't formed yet.(KBTX)

As of Wednesday, there is still not enough organization for model data to grasp and create a consistent or accurate forecast 5 to 7 days out. Data has suggested a tropical system making landfall of various strengths, anywhere from the Texas / Mexico border near Brownsville to the Middle Texas Coast to Central Lousiana. Exact impacts, strength, and location will, unfortunately, not be known for a few more days. In fact, we may start to get more reliable, consistent data within the next 24 hours. Stay tuned, and we’ll keep you updated as we learn more.

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