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NHC: Tropical Depression likely to form in southern Gulf

Many details to finetune after center of circulation develops
Published: Sep. 11, 2021 at 7:24 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - As of Saturday evening, confidence is increasing that tropical development will occur in the southern Gulf.

As of the 7pm Saturday update from the National Hurricane Center, forecasters expect a tropical depression to develop from a tropical wave near the Bay of Campeche by Sunday or Monday as the system tracks northward.

There are still many details to finetune with this potential system over the next few days, as more/less interaction with land and how closely it tracks to the western Gulf coastline will affect it’s status and strength. Regardless of development, this wave will bring a big slug of tropical moisture into Southeast Texas by the beginning of next week, increasing rain and storm chances in the Brazos Valley as early as Monday.

A big slug of tropical moisture will bring rain and storms to the Brazos Valley as early as...
A big slug of tropical moisture will bring rain and storms to the Brazos Valley as early as Monday.(KBTX)

For the time being -- the biggest concern to monitor locally will be heavy rainfall as these tropical downpours push across Southeast Texas. Rainfall totals will likely need to be adjusted after we get a clearer picture of the exact track/strength of the system, but it is currently looking like totals could range in the window of 0.5″ - 3″ with localized higher totals certainly a possibility depending on where the heavier downpours set up. Overall, a sharp gradient in totals could be possible from one side of the Brazos Valley to the other, but generally the higher rainfall totals look to be found the farther south you travel.

A sharp gradient in totals will be possible depending on where rainbands set up.
A sharp gradient in totals will be possible depending on where rainbands set up.(KBTX)

We should get a clearer picture regarding the future of this wave after it becomes better organized and develops a center of circulation, so check back in as we finetune the forecast throughout the rest of the weekend.

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