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Tropical downpours likely to kick off the work week as Tropical Storm Nicholas approaches the Gulf Coast

Published: Sep. 12, 2021 at 4:05 PM CDT|Updated: Sep. 12, 2021 at 10:39 PM CDT
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After a stretch of days consisting of drier air across the Brazos Valley, a surge of tropical moisture will move into Southeast Texas to kick off the upcoming work week. This moisture will move in ahead of what is now Tropical Storm Nicholas that sits in the western Gulf Sunday night. There are still many details to finetune over the next 24 hours in regards to the exact track and intensity of this tropical storm, but higher rain chances are in the forecast locally starting Monday, lasting through at least midweek.

For now -- the current plan is for the Brazos Valley to see rounds of scattered-to-widespread tropical downpours Monday as Nicholas approaches the middle Texas coastline. After making landfall Monday, the system is then expected to move north-northeastward across Southeast Texas throughout the day Tuesday. There is still plenty room for wobbles and adjustments in the exact forecast track through the next 24 - 48 hours as the center of circulation is still forming, with any shift changing the exact impacts and intensity of those impacts observed in the Brazos Valley. As of now -- the biggest thing to monitor locally will be heavy rainfall. If the system curves farther south and east, this would mean less rainfall for the Brazos Valley, but if the system stays a bit farther west, this would mean more rainfall for the Brazos Valley. Numbers will likely need to be fiddled with over the next 24 hours or so, but a sharp gradient of rainfall totals is likely from one side of the area to the other depending on where the center of circulation tracks. More as we know it on that front -- but on average, parts of the Brazos Valley could pick up on 1″ - 5″ inches with localized higher amounts definitely a possibility, and generally higher totals found the farther south and east you travel.

We’ll continue to hash out the finer details over the next 12 to 24 hours as we get more reliable and consistent data, but best to keep the rain gear handy through at least the first half of the week. Keep checking back for updates -- they’ll be waiting for you on-air, online, and on your KBTX PinPoint Weather App.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance for rain and storms. Low: 74. Wind: ESE 5-10 mph.

Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance for rain and storms. High: 85. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance for rain and storms. Low: 73. Wind: E 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a 70% chance for rain and storms. High: 84. Wind: E 10-20 mph.

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