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Saturday Storms: Isolated severe weather possible in the Brazos Valley

Damaging wind gusts and weak tornado concerns are possible by late afternoon
Updated: Saturday morning adjustment of the day's 1 out of 5 risk for isolated severe weather,...
Updated: Saturday morning adjustment of the day's 1 out of 5 risk for isolated severe weather, per the Storm Prediction Center(KBTX)
Published: Jan. 7, 2022 at 10:59 AM CST|Updated: Jan. 8, 2022 at 10:21 AM CST
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A wild swing in temperatures is in store for the Brazos Valley as we end the work week and head into the weekend. After overcast skies blanketed the area Friday holding afternoon thermometers to the 40s and low 50s, a quick return of Gulf humidity is nudging warmer air into the Brazos Valley leading to a spring-ish feel Saturday to go along with the potential for spring-like thunderstorms.

STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, A FEW COULD BE SEVERE

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Central and Eastern Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather Saturday. This “marginal” risk is defined as the potential for “isolated storms that are limited in duration. One or two severe storms are possible.”

As an area of low pressure continues drifting along the Texas Coast from the southwest, it will continue to push unstable air into the Brazos Valley. That air is expected to be in place as early as noon. A disturbance moving over the area will utilize that low-level moisture and unlock an expected cluster of thunderstorms by the afternoon hours.

While stormy weather is anticipated, this is not a threat for every thunderstorm that forms to become severe. Any slow-moving storm that can get out away from storm clusters and become isolated will need to be monitored for impactful weather. The highest concern / most likely chance a severe storm would form -- if it is going to happen -- along and east of I-45.

Highest potential for severe weather falls along and east of I-45 Saturday afternoon
Highest potential for severe weather falls along and east of I-45 Saturday afternoon(KBTX)

HAZARDS / CONCERNS

Should a thunderstorm manage to grab an open spot in the atmosphere and become severe, it could bring the following concerns with it:

While all types of hazards are possible, should a storm become severe, damaging wind gusts and...
While all types of hazards are possible, should a storm become severe, damaging wind gusts and a weak tornado are the main concerns(KBTX)
  • Damaging Wind Gusts in excess of 40 to 60mph
  • Weak Tornado concerns may occur at times
  • Large Hail to the size of quarters possible but a much lower concern
  • Localized Heavy Rain to the tune of a quick 1″ to 2″

TIMING

Scattered showers will be possible at anytime Saturday through Sunday morning. Thunderstorms development could begin as early as 2 pm across the Highway 6 corridor and through the Central Brazos Valley. The more likely opportunity for thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon to early evening east of the Navasota River. Strong and severe storms will be possible through 7 to 8 pm for those along and east of I-45.

Highest, most likely chance for thunderstorms Saturday falls along and east of the Navasota River
Highest, most likely chance for thunderstorms Saturday falls along and east of the Navasota River(KBTX)

For most of the Brazos Valley, a few tenths of an inch will be the best that many grab in the rain gauge from this weather event. Thunderstorms are not expected for the entire area. A cold front arrives Sunday midday to early afternoon, sweeping the rain potential and humidity south, allowing the next cooler round of air to seep into the Brazos Valley.

Changes arrive this weekend as warmer and humid air moves back into the Brazos Valley.
Changes arrive this weekend as warmer and humid air moves back into the Brazos Valley.(KBTX)

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