Thursday brings a severe risk to the Brazos Valley. Here are the timing and impacts

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - An active round of weather is anticipated to impact the Brazos Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours of Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe weather risk to a 3 out of 5 potential across the Northern and Northeastern Brazos Valley. Isolated early afternoon thunderstorms could create a tornado concern in or near that part of our area before this evolves into mainly a heavy rain and strong wind potential by late afternoon.

9pm WEDNESDAY UPDATE

THURSDAY

As that same area of low pressure tracks east, it will drag a cold front into Texas over the next 24 hours. As that boundary swings across the state, it’s expected to send a widespread cluster of rain and strong thunderstorms into the Brazos Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, where all types of severe weather will initially need to be monitored.

TIMING: As of Wednesday morning, the latest guidance suggests that the leading edge of this line could reach the Brazos Valley as follows:

• Northern Brazos Valley | 2 p.m. - 4 p.m. | Isolated storms, ahead of the expected afternoon main line of activity, will bring a potential for all types of severe weather. This will include the possibility of a couple tornadoes.
• Central Brazos Valley | 4 p.m. - 6 p.m. | As line the line fills in and takes over, a 2/5 (yellow) risk becomes mainly a damaging wind concern through the late afternoon and early evening hours. While hail or brief spin-ups are not ruled out, the strongest storms would most likely be monitored for possible 50-65mph gusts.
• Southern Brazos Valley | 5 p.m. - 8 p.m. | Rain-cooled air likely undercuts storms further south, leaving a lower isolated, but not zero, chance for a few strong puffs of gusty wind (green).

SEVERE WEATHER

As of midday Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the 3/5 risk for scattered strong/severe storms to include the far northern & northeastern reaches of the Brazos Valley. Below that, the SPC continues to highlight a good chunk of the Brazos Valley in a 2/5 risk for severe activity down to the Hwy 290 corridor.

HEAVY RAINFALL

By the time all is said and done (and this range may need to be fiddled with over the next 24 hours), 1″ - 2″ of rainfall may be up for grabs, with localized 3″ - 4″+ pockets certainly a possibility, especially farther north and east. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the Central and Eastern Brazos Valley in a 1/4 risk for excessive rainfall (too much rain falling too quickly), and the Northeastern Brazos Valley in a 2/4 risk. We may need to keep eyes on low-lying and poor drainage areas, as well as instances of minor urban/street/creek flooding, especially for those that find heavier downpours and stronger storms.

Overall, Thursday will be a day to stay weather aware, and plan on keeping that KBTX PinPoint Weather App nearby!

After the storms pass, rain-cooled air is expected to briefly take over the Brazos Valley, with temperatures falling into the 60s/low 70s to end the day. Don’t get used to it -- summer-like heat quickly returns in full force for the upcoming Mother’s Day weekend!

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