Storms roll into the Brazos Valley Thursday afternoon: Here’s what to expect

A few tornadoes may need to be monitored for in the early afternoon hours
Published: May. 5, 2022 at 8:40 AM CDT|Updated: May. 5, 2022 at 9:33 AM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Right as we’re headed home from work and school (or off to Cinco de Mayo festivities) we will see our highest chance for rain and storms over the next 10 days. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe weather risk to a 3 out of 5 potential across the Northern and Northeastern Brazos Valley. Isolated early afternoon thunderstorms could create a tornado concern in or near that part of our area before this evolves into mainly a heavy rain and strong wind potential by late afternoon.

TIMING: Timing remains consistent with Thursday morning’s model data. Here’s a look at where/when storms will arrive, and what they could bring:

  • Northern Brazos Valley | 2 p.m. - 4 p.m. | Isolated storms, ahead of the expected afternoon main line of activity, will bring a potential for all types of severe weather. This will include the possibility of a couple tornadoes.
  • Central Brazos Valley | 4 p.m. - 6 p.m. | As line the line fills in and takes over, a 2/5 (yellow) risk becomes mainly a damaging wind concern through the late afternoon and early evening hours. While hail or brief spin-ups are not ruled out, the strongest storms would most likely be monitored for possible 50-65mph gusts.
  • Southern Brazos Valley | 5 p.m. - 8 p.m. | Rain-cooled air likely undercuts storms further south, leaving a lower isolated, but not zero, chance for a few strong puffs of gusty wind (green).

⚡️𝗧𝗛𝗨𝗥𝗦𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗠𝗦 / 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗦𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗘 𝗪𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 Little change with the outlook for Thursday afternoon's expected...

Posted by Meteorologist Shel Winkley KBTX on Thursday, May 5, 2022

SEVERE WEATHER

As of midday Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the 3/5 risk for scattered strong/severe storms to include the far northern & northeastern reaches of the Brazos Valley. Below that, the SPC continues to highlight a good chunk of the Brazos Valley in a 2/5 risk for severe activity down to the Hwy 290 corridor.

HEAVY RAINFALL

By the time all is said and done (and this range may need to be fiddled with over the next 24 hours), 1″ - 2″ of rainfall may be up for grabs, with localized 3″ - 4″+ pockets certainly a possibility, especially farther north and east. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the Central and Eastern Brazos Valley in a 1/4 risk for excessive rainfall (too much rain falling too quickly), and the Northeastern Brazos Valley in a 2/4 risk. We may need to keep eyes on low-lying and poor drainage areas, as well as instances of minor urban/street/creek flooding, especially for those that find heavier downpours and stronger storms.

The northern & northeastern reaches of the area have been included in a 2/4 risk for excessive...
The northern & northeastern reaches of the area have been included in a 2/4 risk for excessive rainfall Thursday.(KBTX)

Overall, Thursday will be a day to stay weather aware, and plan on keeping that KBTX PinPoint Weather App nearby!

After the storms pass, rain-cooled air is expected to briefly take over the Brazos Valley, with temperatures falling into the 60s/low 70s to end the day. Don’t get used to it -- summer-like heat quickly returns in full force for the upcoming Mother’s Day weekend!

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