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Multiple rounds of rain, thunderstorms expected this week. Here’s what to expect

Localized flooding for parts of the Brazos Valley could be a concern through mid-week
Published: May. 22, 2022 at 9:49 PM CDT
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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - For a month that is expected to be the second wettest of the year in the Brazos Valley, this May has been uncharacteristically hot and dry. Saturday night’s storms left behind measurable rain for just the third time this month. As of Sunday night, May is considered behind on rainfall by just over 2.50″. That could easily be made up in the coming days.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through mid-week. Rounds of rain, thunderstorms, and heavy downpours are anticipated late Monday, Tuesday, Tuesday evening/overnight, and again during the day Wednesday. All said and done, anywhere from an additional 1″ to 4″ of rainfall is not ruled out, with localized totals of 5″ to 6″ possible.

TIMING

  • Monday: The overall chance for wet weather to lead off the week seems to have decreased. While a stray shower or thunderstorm is not ruled out, the daytime and early evening hours are expected to be mostly -- if not completely dry -- across the Brazos Valley
  • Monday Night: The first disturbance of the bunch this week is expected to swivel toward the Brazos Valley sometime between midnight and sunrise Tuesday. As that disturbance nears, a few bands of heavy, rumbly rain will be possible. While most of this activity will primarily be showers, gusty wind 30-40mph will also be possible closer to the center of the passing low. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be low with this round
  • Tuesday: The timing of the first passing disturbance will be key in when the first round of rain falls Tuesday. If the disturbance is slower and does not arrive until sunrise, scattered rain and a few rumbles/downpours will be possible through midday. If the low passes in the pre-sunrise hours, scattered rain and strong storms are not ruled out through the day moving from south to north. Regardless, while not a total wash, scattered times of rain and thunderstorms are expected during the daylight hours of Tuesday. Rainfall totals between a few tenths to half an inch will be possible with this round.
  • Tuesday Night: Another disturbance passing further north will kick off a round of storms in Northwest Texas that is expected to form a southbound line by the evening hours. This line is anticipated to reach the Brazos Valley by late evening through the early morning/pre-sunrise hours of Wednesday. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty wind will likely accompany this activity. Localized heavy rain to the tune of 1″ to 1.5″+ will be possible.
  • Wednesday: The air over the Brazos Valley will likely be stable Wednesday morning in the wake of overnight activity passing by. As the atmosphere recharges, another disturbance kicks off more rain and storms in parts of the western side of Texas. Another cluster of storms is expected to reach the area by evening hours. One last round of heavy rain, storms, and possible instances of severe weather is expected through and past sunset. An additional inch or more of rain is possible with this round of storms.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL

While multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected, the overall severe weather threat is decently low, but not zero. The Storm Prediction Center has the area marked in a:

  • Monday: 1 out of 5 “isolated” risk for a strong-to-severe storm, particularly through the overnight if storms arrive from the west. Gusty wind 40mph+ will be the main concern
  • Tuesday: 2 out of 5 “scattered” risk, primarily across the north and western Brazos Valley. While a spin-up, brief tornado, or pocket change size hail concern cannot be ruled out, again wind will be the main potential with any stronger storms. Gusts 50-60mph+ will be monitored, particularly as the expected line of activity moves south out of Central Texas
  • Wednesday: 2 out of 5 “scattered” risk is currently in place across the southern and southeastern Brazos Valley. This will be a risk potential that will need to be monitored and fine-tuned as hi-resolution forecast models get a better handle on the storm potential for the day.
The first half of the week holds a low-end potential for strong and severe storms across the...
The first half of the week holds a low-end potential for strong and severe storms across the Brazos Valley(KBTX)

While the disturbances are expected, small-scale features such as these will need to be adjusted as better forecast data is understood. Timing and rainfall potential will be adjusted as need be in the coming days. The latest details, a check of interactive radar, and severe weather alerts are avails on the KBTX PinPoint Weather App.

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