Flood Watch issued for part of the Brazos Valley ahead of heavy rain potential
2″ to 3″ of widespread rain possible. Localized 4″ to 5″+ not ruled out
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A messy weather pattern continues to unfold across Texas over the next 24 to 48 hours. The Brazos Valley is preparing for the potential of a few rounds of rain and thunderstorms to pass through the area.
This active weather pattern is expected to continue through mid-week. Rounds of rain, thunderstorms, and heavy downpours are anticipated early Tuesday morning through early-to-mid afternoon and again Tuesday evening/overnight through the first half of Wednesday. At times, these storms could be severe and deposit quick, heavy rain over a short amount of time.
- Monday Night: The first disturbance of the bunch this week is swiveling out of Mexico to the northeast. As that disturbance nears, a few bands of heavy, rumbly rain will be possible. While most of this activity will primarily be showers, gusty wind 40mph+ will also be possible closer to the center of the passing low. Rainfall totals are generally expected to be low with this round. Any stronger storm could produce a quick 0.5″+ as it passes
- Tuesday: Scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible as this first disturbance slowly swings through the area. While not for all and not a washout of a day, this activity may take until midday to early afternoon to pass through and out of the eastern half of the area. Should any storm activity continue into the afternoon hours, they could be strong with heavy rain, gusty wind, lightning, and small hail.
- Tuesday Night: This looks to be our biggest potential for severe weather. Another disturbance passing further north will kick off a round of storms in Northwest Texas that is expected to form a southbound line by the evening hours. This line is anticipated to reach the Northern Brazos Valley by 11 p.m. to 1 a.m, the Central Brazos Valley between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m., and the Southern Brazos Valley between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. Wednesday. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty -- potentially damaging -- wind will likely accompany this activity. Localized heavy rain to the tune of 1″ to 2″+ will be possible.
- Wednesday: The rain chance is high for the day, but that is to compensate for the likely ongoing rain as the sun comes up. During the morning hours, rain chances should come to an end from north to south by or shortly after midday at the latest. Residual, localized flooding and continued lightning will be possible for the morning commute to work and getting students to the first bell of the day.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
While multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected, the overall severe weather threat is decently low, but not zero. The Storm Prediction Center has the area marked in a:
- Tuesday: 2 out of 5 “scattered” risk for the entire Brazos Valley. While a spin-up, brief tornado, or pocket change size hail concern cannot be ruled out, again wind will be the main potential with any stronger storms. Gusts 50-60mph+ will be monitored, particularly as the expected line of activity moves south out of Central Texas and into the Brazos Valley during the overnight hours. Gusts as high as 70-80mph will be monitored, as suggested by some forecast data Monday evening.
- Wednesday: 1 out of 5 “isolated” risk is marked for the area after 7 a.m. The overall severe weather risk here looks low, considering the main line of concerning storms should be south and southeast of the area by sunrise.
While the disturbances are expected, small-scale features such as these will need to be adjusted as better forecast data is understood. Timing and rainfall potential will be adjusted as need be in the coming days. The latest details, a check of interactive radar, and severe weather alerts are avails on the KBTX PinPoint Weather App.
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