Despite quiet start to hurricane season, experts maintain above average forecast
August to October peak expected to be especially active
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Scientists at Colorado State University have released an update to their original forecast from April, and are persistent that the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season will have an above average number of named storms.
In the monthly update, forecasters saw no reason to lower the number of storms in their forecast, despite a somewhat quiet beginning to the season.
Using different models, explained in detail in their July 7 report, forecasters at Colorado State University predict both above average sea-surface temperatures and below average upper level winds, which typically provides an easier environment for tropical storms to form.
Another note: The group has begun issuing probabilities for major hurricane landfall, stating a 75% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the Lower 48 coastline. The average for the last century is about 52%.
The intent of the above probability is not to alarm, but to alert. Forecasters from NOAA and CSU both always emphasize that no matter how active a hurricane season is, it only takes one impactful storm for a location to have an “active” year. Usual precautions should be taken as we go into months with higher hurricane likelihood, especially through at least mid-September here in the state of Texas.
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