Despite quiet start to hurricane season, experts maintain above average forecast

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Scientists at Colorado State University have released an update to their original forecast from April, and are persistent that the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season will have an above average number of named storms.

In the monthly update, forecasters saw no reason to lower the number of storms in their forecast, despite a somewhat quiet beginning to the season.

Using different models, explained in detail in their July 7 report, forecasters at Colorado State University predict both above average sea-surface temperatures and below average upper level winds, which typically provides an easier environment for tropical storms to form.

Another note: The group has begun issuing probabilities for major hurricane landfall, stating a 75% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the Lower 48 coastline. The average for the last century is about 52%.

The new outlook from Colorado State University maintains its "above average" outlook with its... — The new outlook from Colorado State University maintains its "above average" outlook with its monthly update, giving an up to 75% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere along the US coastline. We are still far from the peak of hurricane season, which is typically in mid-September.(KBTX)

The intent of the above probability is not to alarm, but to alert. Forecasters from NOAA and CSU both always emphasize that no matter how active a hurricane season is, it only takes one impactful storm for a location to have an “active” year. Usual precautions should be taken as we go into months with higher hurricane likelihood, especially through at least mid-September here in the state of Texas.

One reason for active Atlantic #hurricane seasonal forecast from CSU is due to robust West African monsoon so far. Stronger easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with active monsoon pic.twitter.com/eexgk0d8xV
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2022