NOAA and Colorado State University update previously issued 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University gave updates to their Atlantic hurricane outlooks for the 2022 season Thursday morning.

NOAA

In NOAA’s update, scientists have ever so slightly decreased the number of tropical cyclones from their first outlook for the season issued back in May, but are still predicting a 60% chance for an “above-normal” season, citing persisting La Nina conditions which can enhance Atlantic hurricane development.

The update now calls for 14-20 named storms, 6-10 of which could become hurricanes and 3-5 of which could become major hurricanes. These numbers include Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, which have already formed.

COLORADO STATE

In Colorado State’s update, scientists have also slightly brought down the numbers of tropical cyclones from the previously issued forecast back in April, but are still predicting an active 2022 season. The forecast now calls for 18 named storms, 8 of which could become hurricanes and 4 of which could become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). These numbers also include Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.

THE 2022 HURRICANE SEASON SO FAR

Hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30. So far, three named storms have been crossed off the list after forming early in the season. Tropical Storm Alex formed off of the US East Coast in early June before tracking farther out into the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the western Caribbean back in early July before making landfall in Central America. Shortly after that, Tropical Storm Colin rapidly formed off the South Carolina coast before quickly dissipating. Plumes of Saharan dust filtering across the Atlantic basin have contributed to a quiet past few weeks in terms of tropical activity, but it’s also worth nothing that June and July are typically two of the quieter months of hurricane season. On average, an uptick in activity is found throughout the month of August with the “peak” of hurricane season residing on September 10.

WHAT’S OUT THERE NOW?

Essentially, not much. As of the Thursday morning update from the National Hurricane Center, forecasters continue to note that tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days. We’ll continue to closely monitor the tropics as the season goes on. For the latest weather information, download the KBTX PinPoint Weather App or check out the hurricane section on our webpage to download the 2022 Hurricane Tracking Chart!

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