National Hurricane Center watching “area of interest” for tropical development
30% chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A tropical wave, a low-pressure system in the tropics, is set to move over the Atlantic Ocean off of the western coast of Africa Saturday night into early Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has determined that there is a 30% chance for development into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days from this tropical wave.
The movement of the tropical wave and designation of a potential tropical cyclone development is indicative of hurricane season starting to ramp up. The climatological peak of hurricane season is September 10. In 2021, six different named storms formed in the Atlantic Basin during August. In September 2021, nine storms were designated and given a name. In 2022 so far, the Atlantic Basin has only seen three named storms. That may change soon, however.
NOAA and Colorado State released their updated hurricane season outlooks on Thursday and both are holding strong that this year will be an above-average season. This season so far can be summarized through one tropical weather occurrence: Saharan dust. Dust from the Saharan Desert travels with trade winds all the way into the skies of the United States and brings with it hot and dry air. The seemingly continuous layer of Saharan dust this summer has actually inhibited tropical development this season. As we move further into August, however, tropical experts are expecting about a 60% chance that the hurricane season will be above average.
It is important to note that this tropical wave is not a guarantee of hurricane development, but rather symbolizes the possibility of increasing activity over the next several weeks. For now, the Brazos Valley is under no threat of a tropical system. Although we need the rain, we will continue to only see isolated showers and triple-digit temperatures for the time being.
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