Tropical disturbance holds a medium chance for development in the Gulf of Mexico

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has the attention of the National Hurricane Center. What started Monday as an area of disorganized rain showers is becoming better organized. As of Tuesday morning’s update from the NHC, this area of interest -- now called Invest 93L -- holds a 60% chance for development in the coming days.

Environmental conditions look to be conducive for development, and the fourteenth tropical depression of the Atlantic season could form in the next day or two as the system moves northwestern into the southwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. However, the window for tropical development could be cut short by the upper levels of the atmosphere. Regardless of formation and development, this looks to be of little concern to the Brazos Valley as our pair of cold fronts should keep 93L trapped in the Gulf.

Healthy explosion of storms overnight in the southern Gulf of Mexico as 93L attempts to come to life. A short-lived tropical system could attempt to take shape next day or so (60%).

Upper-levels become rough by week's end. Pattern expected to keep this trapped in the SW Gulf pic.twitter.com/muew00G3lX
— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) October 11, 2022