Stormy, rainy Thanksgiving afternoon & evening

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Hold on to your stuffing, Brazos Valley. Rain and thunderstorms will invite themselves over for Thanksgiving dinner this year. An extremely slow-moving weather system is moving into Texas today and lingers in the Lone Star State through Saturday. Rounds of rain, thunder, and cooler air are expected over the next 48 to 72 hours.

THANKSGIVING MID-MORNING UPDATE

A foggy, humid start to this holiday Thursday across the Brazos Valley. Visibility at or below 1 mile was common for most of the morning.

After a quick round of passing, noisy rain pre-sunrise in the Northern Brazos Valley, most of the day’s wet weather has been confined to Central Texas Thursday morning. By afternoon, scattered clusters of storms are expected to move in from the southwest and northwest. Increased coverage of rain and strong thunderstorms is expected between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. While the overall severe weather threat is LOW, here is what we will need to monitor through late evening:

• Heavy Rainfall: Totals 1″ to 2″ are expected with localized 3″ to 4″ not ruled out (especially across the southern Brazos Valley). Low-lying street, road, creek, and stream flooding could cause minor travel concerns by evening
• Pocket Change Size Hail: A few storms could produce brief hail to the size of a quarter or smaller. This concern seems confined to the southwestern Brazos Valley between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.
• Strong Wind Gusts: Stronger thunderstorms could produce wind gusts in excess of 30-35mph

THANKSGIVING EVE UPDATE

Models are still showing widespread rainfall across the Brazos Valley, focusing on our southern and southeastern counties. If you were planning on trying to eat outside on the patio, change those plans... especially around dinner time. Heavy rainfall is expected between the noon and 5 PM hours, with some areas looking to get close to 3″ of rain.

Still haven’t left for Thanksgiving yet? Might want to get up early to avoid the rain. Storms start around midday and stick around until early Friday morning. Consistent rainfall across the Brazos Valley is still in the forecast for Friday as well.

Here’s a look at the forecasted rainfall through Thanksgiving night. More rain falls across the Brazos Valley on Friday, filling in the areas that may have missed out on the initial Turkey Day round.

Still monitoring the threat of severe weather, yet the potential remains low. The main concern continues to be the flooding hazard. Street flooding is possible across the Brazos Valley. Heavy rainfall is expected to set up across portions of the Brazos Valley, and remain over that region for several hours, presenting a potential for flash flooding.

PRE-TURKEY DAY TRAVELS

Heading over the meadow and through the woods early to get to Grandma’s house this year? No major concerns are expected be it by car, train, bus, or air Wednesday. We will feature a 20% chance for passing, quick showers Wednesday as mild air makes a return ahead of our featured weather maker this week. Still, no major travel impacts are expected...many remain dry through the day...temperatures are a little more comfortable in the closer-to-seasonable mid-60s.

THANKSGIVING DAY

First thing first: the overall severe weather threat looks minimal-to-low. The Storm Prediction Center has southern portions of the Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for strong to severe storms. So while the threat is low, an isolated strong to severe storm could produce some gusty winds and possibly small hail. Stormy, rainy weather is expected to arrive in rounds as we maneuver from the kitchen to the Thanksgiving table to the couch.

• MORNING: Scattered rain and thunderstorms may already be ongoing ahead of or by sunrise, moving out of Central Texas and away from I-35 near or into the Brazos Valley. Quick heavy rain, thunder, lightning, and gusty wind will all be possible as this passes from west to east through midday. The northern and central Brazos Valley will need to monitor this round that either scrapes by or dips in during the morning hours.
• MIDDAY: We’re expecting showers and storms to begin developing at this point. You may be able to squeeze in an errand or two through late morning, but better to plan for conditions to deteriorate through the afternoon. The first initial round is where we will need to watch most closely for severe weather, thought he threat overall, still looks low.
• AFTERNOON / EVENING: Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be possible as many are sitting down to the table for Thanksgiving dinner. Strong storms could produce very heavy rain that collects a quick 1″ to 3″+ of rain in a short amount of time. Depending on where the heavier pockets of rain position themselves, some areas could collect closer to 2″-4″ with localized totals of 5″+. Frequent lightning, thunder, and wind gusts to 50mph are not ruled out with the strongest activity. Minor / low-lying road and street flooding could be a concern during and after these storms, especially in spots that typically collect water when it falls too quick during heavy rain events.

FRIDAY

Doing some early Christmas shopping to snag the deals? Wanting to get fully in the Christmas spirit and get the outdoor lights up on the house? Both of those could be tricky as rain and thunderstorms remain possible. By this point, heavy rain will be the concern -- especially where it may have repeated several times over the last 24 hours. Localized street / road / low-lying flooding could be a concern in a few places. Wednesday morning data suggest this system will likely still fling rounds of rain at us even as we get out to our evening plans, but we should clear by or before sunrise Saturday.

RAINFALL POTENTIAL

November has been a healthy month of rain for the Brazos Valley. As of Monday evening, the official total at Easterwood Airport exceeded what is expected for the month by just over 0.75″.

Saturday dropped a steady, soaking 0.25″ to 0.75″ of rain. Monday repeated with nearly as much. Thursday and Friday stand to bring another 1″ to 3″ of widespread wet weather, with some rain gauges collecting as much as 3″ to 5″.

For the record: the wettest Thanksgiving Day Bryan-College Station has ever recorded happened 109 years ago in 1913. 0.85″ of rain fell that Thanksgiving Thursday -- a record that could be challenged this year. The all-time rain record for November 24th is 3.61″ -- which happened the following year in 1914.

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WHAT TO MONITOR

As we fine-tune the forecast and get a better handle on this butterball of a weather maker, there will be changes to give a better understanding to timing, potential, and impacts for the holiday and weekend. Updates will be posted to help you make plans and get around this messy Thanksgiving weather.

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