Winter whiplash brings the next rain, rumbles chance this week

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - What a rebound! From spending nearly 90 hours below 40° last week to the 70s by Sunday afternoon! After the recent winter chill that encased parts of the Brazos Valley in ice and knocked out power to tens of thousands in the area, spring-like weather kicks off the new week. If you like a spring-ish feel, soak it up while you can, two shots of chilly, winter air arrive this week. The first sparks rain, potentially a few stronger storms, too.

MONITORING A CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE TUESDAY

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

The Storm Prediction Center has updated its storm potential for Tuesday to now include the entire Brazos Valley. This is still at the 1 out of 5 risk for an isolated, brief strong to severe storm.

Not much has changed with this update other than the area coverage and the time. More details are listed below:

• WHEN: 4 pm Tuesday- 3 am Wednesday
• WHAT: Showers will be possible on and off throughout the morning and early afternoon. The main concern with this system comes as most of us are sleeping in the line of showers and storms that will form along the frontal boundary. This line moves in late Tuesday through the overnight hours and poses a straight-line wind threat primarily. However, if we can get any convection ahead of the front, mainly in the afternoon, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
• LIMITING FACTORS: Much like the last update, there remains a cap in the atmosphere. If that stable layer of air holds strong, this will inhibit storm development greatly. If it erodes, then storms can tap into more unstable air to fuel their growth. The cap holding will be the difference between showers with a few rumbles and a rowdier overnight period.

Wednesday holds about a 70% chance for rain and showers, paired with cooler air filtering in behind the front. This will make way for a cold, dreary rain to fall through the first half of the day Wednesday. This is not a repeat of last week’s wintry precipitation, just a cold rain that should clear by the evening.

By the end of Wednesday, anywhere from 0.5″-1.5″ of rain will be possible. Flooding is not a large concern, but we may find some ponding on roadways as we get out to our day Wednesday morning. The Weather Prediction Center has labeled the area in a 1 out of 4 risk for very minor street and low-lying flood potential during this event. The main reason for the classification: saturated soils from the recent week-long, steady rain.

We will continue to monitor data trends and update you the next few days. Keep the PinPoint Weather App handy so we can get you the latest.

The Storm Prediction Center placed a majority of the Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for an isolated, brief strong or severe storm late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.

• WHEN: 4 pm Tuesday - 12 am Wednesday
• WHAT: Mainly a very isolated strong, damaging wind concern by early evening. If any discrete storms manage to form in the late afternoon or early evening ahead of the expected, developing line, a brief tornado concern may form
• WHAT MAY LIMIT SEVERE CONCERNS: There will be limiting factors in the atmosphere that stunt thunderstorm development through the afternoon. As a cold front arrives, that will be enough to lift storms into the air and open up the chance for active weather. As long as that limiting factor remains through the evening, the low concern for any tornadic potential will not be actualized. The front itself may undercut the main line of storms, cutting it off from tapping into low-level “fuel” for stronger wind gusts. That may keep any evening activity to just rain and a few noisy rumbles of thunder.

As of Sunday night, the overall concern for any impactful thunderstorms seems low. Still, it is a forecast that will need to be fine-tuned and monitored over the next 24 to 48 hours.

COLD RAIN FALLS WEDNESDAY

First and foremost: No ice is expected with this round of weather. Temperatures are expected to fall to the upper 40s by sunrise Thursday in the wake of this next cold front. The primary weather maker pushing in the chilly air will allow for another batch of rain to pass through the Brazos Valley, at least for the first half of the day.

Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 40s and low 50s for as long as the wet weather is around. Rainfall totals are expected between 0.5″ and 1.5″. Localized 2″ or higher totals are not ruled out, particularly if isolated pockets of the area experience stronger storms Tuesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has labeled the area in a 1 out of 4 risk for very minor street and low-lying flood potential during this event. The main reason for the classification: saturated soils from the recent week-long, steady rain.

More details as new data comes into the PinPoint Weather Center early this week. Additional information is included in the video above.

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