Possible but not guaranteed: Conditional severe storm concern Monday night

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - The Storm Prediction Center is once again monitoring Texas and the Brazos Valley for the possibility of strong-to-severe storms. A 1 out of 5, lowest, risk for that potential was issued by the agency midday Sunday. This wide risk along a sloshing frontal system is stretched from the Texas/Mexico Border in the just west of the Brazos Valley all the way across the south to Georgia and the Carolinas.

IMPACTS (SHOULD A SEVERE STORM POP UP OR DRIFT INTO THE AREA) IN ORDER OF CONCERN:

• Large Hail: Possible anywhere between the size of a quarter or slightly larger
• Heavy Rain: Strongest storms could leave behind a quick 0.5″ to 1″ of highly localized rainfall
• Gusty Wind: Up to 30mph -- mainly in the wake of the cold front (not associated with thunderstorms)

Another push of mild spring air was in place as this Monday started. The end of that air mass stalled between Navasota and Houston. That same front turns north as a warm front through the afternoon, allowing south winds to once again increase the Gulf moisture and temperature. The areas highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for Monday/Monday night’s severe potential will be in the unsettled airmass south of this warm front. By Monday night, a secondary push of cool/dry air returns on a flip-flopping north wind. That wind shift overnight into the wee, early hours of Tuesday could also spark isolated storms.

All of this to be said, the agency notes that this is a HIGHLY conditional chance for storms. Data throughout the morning has suggested that this storm potential remains south of the Brazos Valley, likely confined somewhere between I-10 and the Upper Texas Coast. However, should a storm manage to form on the passing cold front, dynamics of the atmosphere overhead could allow for hail-producing thunderstorms.

The cold front should stall along southern Louisiana/upper Texas coastal areas today, with isolated severe storms possible mainly across southern Louisiana today. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will otherwise increase on the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great Plains. Below-average confidence continues in terms of the timing/placement of most probable convective development. Regardless, substantial speed shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight in vicinity of the upper Texas coast. Isolated large hail is the most probable hazard.

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Overall concerns for severe weather to start the new week are very low. Still, it is a day to keep up with the latest information and forecast as spring storm season begins to unravel for the Brazos Valley.

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