Conditional severe potential Tuesday evening, more likely round Wednesday

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A much different feel in the air Tuesday, Gulf moisture filled in over the course of the day prompting for a few, very brief, showers in the morning and early afternoon. Tuesday evening still prompts a chance for a few severe storms. The better chance for severe weather will roll through as we flip the calendar from Wednesday to Thursday.

As of Tuesday early evening, a few showers and storms were bubbling up in southwestern portions of the Brazos Valley. The Storm Prediction Center noted that if storms can break past the cap in the atmosphere heading into the later evening hours, the main hazard will be hail. The best potential to see severe activity is to the southwest of the area, That said, enough moisture and warm air movement into this moist atmosphere could allow for the necessary ingredients to pop up storms locally late this afternoon, or allow storms out west to move into our area by the evening. Specifically, we will watch for development over areas like Lee, Burleson, Washington, and Austin counties.

Wednesday, much higher instability in the atmosphere will exist ahead of the cold front pushing through the state of Texas. Ahead of the front, an isolated strong to severe storm could pop up in the afternoon from about 3pm-6pm. This will be another conditional storm chance, and if these can get organized large hail looks to be the main concern. Then we flip our attention to the most likely and widespread chance for rain and storms. Strong thunderstorms are expected to form in North Central Texas and slowly make their way into our area over the course of the evening. The SPC notes the potential for “very” large hail in that area.

While we will need to monitor for some hail of our own, storms are generally expected to weaken as they move into our area, leaving a lower hail concern, but a medium potential for severe wind gusts in excess of 60mph, especially across our northern counties through the overnight hours. The main line will work southward from just around 12am Thursday morning through 5am. The best potential to see severe weather will be along the leading edge of the line.

Strong wind gusts will be the main threat to watch for tomorrow night as the line of storms slogs its way south over the course of the night. Some heavy rain is likely, with 1-3″ widespread once again before the sun rises Thursday. At the moment, Thursday and Friday afternoons look stellar, with another batch of non-severe storms possible Friday night into midday Saturday.

Copyright 2023 KBTX. All rights reserved.