Rounds of rain -- heavy at times -- expected Tuesday & Wednesday

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - More May rain and thunderstorms are on the way to the Brazos Valley. By the end of the week and through Mother’s Day weekend, it could end up being some of the wettest weather Central and Southeast Texas has seen in months. While the severe weather threat is not a major concern in the coming days, saturated grounds and heavy rainfall could lead to flood issues at times.

HOW MUCH RAIN COULD FALL?

As small areas of low-pressure drift from South Texas north through the east side of the state, they will pull Gulf moisture into the Brazos Valley. This is not just muggy, stuffy air kind of moisture but the rain-making mid-level of the atmosphere kind of moisture. In fact, the amount of that moisture in our atmosphere is expected to run on the magnitude of 150% to 180% or so above what is typical for this time of the year. Short of the long: the atmosphere is ready to drop some rain.

By Wednesday evening, after rounds of rain and storms will have likely moved through the area, the general idea is about 2″ or so of rain should be common Brazos Valley-wide. Depending on the center of that low, there could be a few in our northwestern counties that check-in sub-1″. On the other side of that, localized totals of 3″ to 5″ are not far-fetched, particularly along and south of Highway 290 and Highway 105. Some hi-resolution forecast models are even hinting that half a foot of localized rain could fall. The area is marked in a 2 out of 4 risk of “Excessive Rainfall” (aka potential flood concerns) Wednesday.

The National Weather Service’s seven-day rainfall forecast calls for 3″ to 6″ of rain through the end of Mother’s Day Weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS?

While a strong storm capable of wind gusts 30-40mph and small hail are not ruled out, the overall severe weather concern is low through mid-week. The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook, as of Sunday, keeps any sort of organized severe weather risk well west of I-35 and more in parts of the Texas Panhandle, Southern High Plains, and West Texas.

WHEN SHOULD YOU EXPECT RAIN?

Monday has the chance to allow isolated to minimally scattered rain and storms to develop in the Brazos Valley. The isolated potential is more likey the case for those along or west of Highway 6 and the Brazos River. The better chance for scattered afternoon cooling rain and non-severe thunderstorms is closer to the I-45 corridor and east of the Navasota River.

Tuesday the center of low pressure is expected to start the day southwest of the Brazos Valley. While scattered rain and a few storms are not ruled out before noon, the more likely wet and rumbly weather arrives by afternoon. Initially, strong thunderstorms will develop just south or in the Southern Brazos Valley. This is where a few wind gusts to 40mph or higher are possible and a quick uptick of heavy rain and lightning/thunder happen. As rain-cooled air is pushed from this activity it could cause more of a widespread, steady rain to spread over the Brazos Valley. Plan for rain for after-school events, the drive home from work, and evening plans.

Wednesday finds this low swiveling out of Southeast Texas and north through the day. As it does, ample Gulf moisture continues to be pulled north on the east side of this system’s counter-clockwise flow. Bands of rain -- some heavy at times -- are expected off and on through the day. Unlike Tuesday, with the low near or overhead, scattered rain and storms can start as early as right at or just a few hours after sunrise.

KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST, CHECK INTERACTIVE RADAR, AND RECEIVE FLOOD ALERTS IF THEY ARE ISSUED WITH THE KBTX PINPOINT WEATHER APP

While confidence is high for rounds of rain and thunderstorms to impact the Brazos Valley, where the heaviest rain will set up is still a forecast worth fine-tuning. Details will be posted as the latest information comes into the PinPoint Weather Center.

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