Central Texas storms could send gusty evening wind to the Brazos Valley

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Western and Northern Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 “isolated” risk for strong-to-severe storms Saturday evening. Late afternoon stormy weather in parts of Central Texas, the Hill Country, and East Texas is expected to develop. What happens locally by and after sunset will depend on how this activity evolves.

WHAT ARE THE SEVERE CONCERNS AND WHEN?

It is important to note that any strong or severe weather chance is highly conditional and on the lower scale of concern before the stroke of midnight Sunday.

IMPACTS: Strong wind gusts in excess of 30-50mph+. Isolated penny to brief quarter-size hail not ruled out, but not highly likely
WHEN: 5 pm Saturday - 12am Sunday | Highest potential: 8 pm - 11 pm Saturday

Parts of the Brazos Valley fall under an isolated risk of strong wind gusts Saturday evening(KBTX)

HOW AND WHY THIS CONCERN MAY PLAY OUT

Forecast data has been struggling with the evolution of the evening storm potential in the Brazos Valley. Late afternoon storms are expected to the west and northeast of the area. What complicates the evening forecast is how quickly storms will push out rain-cooled air, undercutting the instability around them. The longevity of storms near the area and which direction those cool air boundaries move are key factors to if the area will experience any inclement weather.

/2 Worth keeping an eye on between 8pm & 12am. Even without much rain, if storms collapse as they reach the Brazos Valley, outflow wind could gust as high as 30-50mph.

This forecast model may not have it perfect, but it is the reason our area falls under a 1/5 (low) severe risk pic.twitter.com/o5ZGAZ4qiZ
— Shel Winkley 👍 (@KBTXShel) June 3, 2023

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Much of the area will likely remain dry heading into the darker hours of Saturday. However, even without rain, outflow boundaries from nearby storms could push through the area with strong wind gusts as high as 50mph. The more likely chance for impactful wind will happen for those further west while speeds should slow to more of a gentle breeze for locations closer to and beyond I-45.

Forecast data is anything but perfect considering the microscale impacts of this weather event. Still, due to the signals of this possibility, the area has been included in the lowest severe weather risk of the day.