Chilled sunshine starts the week, heavy rain concerns finish it out

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BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - Latest cold front is slowly seeping cooler air back into the Brazos Valley as we start the first week of December. Quiet weather pattern abruptly changes to bring a heavy rain threat by Friday.

Near seasonable weather leads the work and school week off. Walking out the door to a mid-40° chill Monday morning. Jacket worthy for sure, but also very much what is expected for the first days of December. High clouds stream west to east through the day as afternoon highs slowly crawl to the upper 50s and low 60s by mid-afternoon.

First half of the week is a little colder, but still perfect to get you into that December mindset. Patchy morning frost is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday morning -- perhaps even a light freeze in outlying areas. Afternoon highs reach the mid-to-upper 50s under a fair amount of sunshine.

Thursday is a transition day as we gear up for some very soggy changes here in the Brazos Valley. In fact, from a returned overcast sky, a few showers may sprinkle their way across the area by Thursday afternoon and evening.

As of now, an upper level low in the Pacific has consistently been sending signals that it intends to soak the Lone Star State Friday into early Saturday morning. Confidence level is high that this event will come together considering the consistency in the forecast since mid-last week.

As of this moment, a widespread 2" to 4" of rainfall is not out of the question for the Brazos Valley. What we do need to monitor: forecast data that has tried to place a 6" to 10" swath of localized rain either in or very close to our backyard. That amount of rain would fall in a 24 to 36 hour time frame -- which would likely lead to flash flooding.

Higher rainfall totals are not set in stone, and something that will need to be ironed out through the week. At this point, plan for rain on Friday. Plan for the chance for some very inclement weather and perhaps a few strong thunderstorms. Make a plan B for early weekend plans -- judging by the data we have at our disposal currently, it may be tough to get around parts of the Brazos Valley.