BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - Sunday Evening Update:
The Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been canceled early for all but Lee County. Strong storms will continue to move away from our area through the evening. Additional development will be a possibility late tonight into early tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into the area, but activity is expected to be isolated and below severe limits.
The Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been trimmed back (canceled) for Milam, Robertson, and Leon counties. We expect this trend to continue through the evening, but we'll still need to watch for an isolated unruly storm or two.
Sunday Afternoon Update:
A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been issued for a majority of the Brazos Valley until 10pm (with the exception of Houston, Trinity, and San Jacinto Counties). Strong storms off to our north will continue to work their way into our area as we go through the afternoon. We'll also be watching for areas of additional development into the overnight hours.
The main threats with any storms that form will be for quarter-sized hail and damaging winds in excess of 50mph.
As of 3pm, the rest of the Brazos Valley is not included in any watch. We'll continue to watch progress of approaching storms as we go through the afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the potential for "explosive convection initiation" that could lead to storms producing 70-75mph wind late Sunday.
A weak cold front will spend Sunday slowly sagging through Texas. That front will be the difference between upper, near-record 90° temperatures / heat index values 105° - 110° as the weekend ends and the upper 80s on the thermometer Monday.
That type of heat and humidity clashing with a wind shift bringing drier air will also cause the potential for rapidly developing thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon, through the evening hours.
Per the Storm Prediction Center, the Navasota River and points west are listed under a SLIGHT (2/5) Risk for severe weather through 7am Monday. A majority of Milam County is in a higher ENHANCED (3/5) Risk.
The biggest concern of the day: damaging winds. The outlook for Sunday has a hatched area marked from Dallas to Austin and points around I-35 signaling the potential for 70-75mph+ wind from any severe thunderstorm that may develop. Storm initiation is expected to begin west and along I-35 between 3pm & 5pm.
As of Sunday morning, hi-resolution forecast models keep the day's severe weather potential just west of the Brazos Valley. Storm development and progression will need to be monitored closely through the evening -- specifically for residents in Milam, Robertson, and Lee Counties.
Additional storms drifting south from North Texas could reach those along and west of Highway 6 after midnight Monday. While this storm activity could contain frequent thunder and lightning, heavy rain, and gusty wind -- the overall severe potential should be much lower through the overnight hours.
This is a developing weather situation that will need to be monitored throughout the day.