Saturday Midnight Upate
All watches and warnings have ended in the Brazos Valley. The severe weather concern has moved east of the area.
The 7pm update is out from the Storm Prediction Center regarding Friday evening's severe weather potential. Here is what is important to note:
• All modes of severe weather remain possible. Damaging wind is the top concern, but a tornado concern not ruled out
• Significant 2"+ hail risk has been removed
• Significant EF2+ tornado risk has been removed
• Significant 70mph+ wind gust risk remains over the area.
As of 7:30pm, Scattered rain to a few rumbles of thunder have developed across Milam and Robertson Counties. The main line of thunderstorms continues to near and slide over the I-35 corridor.
We're watching for isolated, discrete cells to form ahead of the cold front / line of storms expected tonight. Hi-resolution model data has kept that activity to the north of our area throughout the day, but we'll be monitoring for that isolated tornado potential ahead of the front's arrival.
A WATCH means conditions are favorable for producing severe storms, NOT that the threat is imminent.
Friday midday update: The forecast remains relatively consistent in both timing and our potential impacts heading into tonight.
The chance for severe weather has increased to our north and east, but we're still likely in a waiting game for more impactful weather until later this evening, unless we can see isolated storm development later this afternoon. As of right now, that doesn't look overly likely, but we'll be watching for storms any time after noon.
Noon run of the HRRR Forecast for what the radar may look like this evening in the Brazos Valley.— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) January 10, 2020
8pm - 2am window holding as the reasonable window for stormy weather & possible severe concerns.
Current expectation for arrival in #bcstx: 9-10pm pic.twitter.com/ORWHKsmcrN
Friday will bring a busy and rough day of weather to Texas.
As southerly winds scream through the east side of the state over the next 18 to 24 hours, unstable, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico continues to feed a severe weather threat ahead of the weekend.
The early morning update from the Storm Prediction Center spreads a MODERATE (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather across North and Northeast Texas. That risk clips the far northern reaches of Leon and Houston Counties; from Buffalo to Crockett and points north.
The rest of the Brazos Valley remains under an ENHANCED (3 our of 5) Risk for severe weather. Here is how each type of severe weather breaks down inside of that risk:
• Tornado: 5% Risk
• Wind: 30% Risk for most. 45% for North-Northeast Leon & Houston Co. (10%+ Risk for gusts exceeding 75mph in that area as well)
• Hail: 30% Risk. Lee and Milam Counties closer to a 10% risk for hail larger than 2" (size of an egg)
Locally, most of the daytime hours of Friday are expected to be tame. Passing showers and drizzle will race through the Brazos Valley on a strong south wind blowing through at 15 to 25mph, with gusts upwards of 30mph+ at times.
By late afternoon, supercell thunderstorms are anticipated to develop west of I-35 near Austin to the Metroplex by 2 to 4pm. Those storms will then congeal into a line of storms, cross I-35, reaching the western Brazos Valley by 7-8pm.
Main storm window locally: 8pm Friday - 2am Saturday
Damaging wind in excess of 50mph to 70mph will be the greatest concern as storms move through over this 6 hour period. Severe storms embedded in this line could occasionally create a large hail and tornado threat.
Friday is a day to be aware of the weather around you, starting in the afternoon hours. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings and keep cell phones charged -- especially through the evening hours.