COLLEGE STATION, Tex (KBTX) - Spring in the Brazos Valley often means rapidly changing weather from day to day, and we’re poised for exactly that, especially over the next 72 hours.
• Strong storms will be possible ahead of and along a cold front late Friday.
• Significant cool down with potentially more rain Saturday.
• Warming back up with a more isolated shot at rain by Sunday.
Let’s start with the cold front. Now that we have real data of how deeply COLD this airmass is, models are being to ‘catch up’ and paint a slightly more consistent picture of how we’ll see the afternoon and evening unfold, and how much cooler we’ll get by wake up time Saturday.
Though hi-res model data has trended quieter for this afternoon and evening, we’ll still have ingredients in place for some hail and potentially high winds of storms are able to form.
Generally, the farther south and west you go, the better chance you have of getting these higher impacts.
Saturday will start chilly. Many of us will dip into the 50s and even 40s, and likely won’t climb out of the 50s until later Sunday. Models have consistently brought another disturbance overhead from midday until the afternoon, which should leave scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms off/on throughout the day.
This won’t be an all day event, but it may come pretty close. Either way, expect Saturday to be damp and chilly.
Sunday, we’ll wake up chilly, but a return of south wind will likely allow us to warm back into the 70s. We won’t rule out some additional showers/storms popping up in the afternoon, but it looks to be the driest of this three day stretch, as of now. You’ll feel the humidity in full force as early as Monday, where we jump back into the 80s (like all of next week) and another chance for scattered showers and storms arrives.
When we arrive to Good Friday, the general expectation is that we’ll receive up to 2-3” of rain widespread across the area. Flooding should not be a huge issue, but we may need to watch for some minor flooding in the usual trouble spots in your neighborhood.
It’s important to note that severe weather confidence is LOW (which is a good thing), but we should still be weather aware this afternoon and early evening. This will continue to develop, and it’s worth checking back through the day as we fine tune the forecast.