BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) - Imelda has brought upwards of ten inches and more to areas along the Texas Coast, but as more data rolls in and it churns northward into the Brazos Valley, we're beginning to get a better picture of where the flooding threat is, and how much (or little) we can receive before it exits upstage.
What's changed: Organization of Imelda has led to a shift in the forecast that brings a lot of variation in how much rain we'll receive from west to east through the end of the week.
More favorable dynamics/moisture are on the eastern half of tropical cyclones, where Imelda is, and will continue to dump the most rain. That means a spread of anywhere from a quarter inch or even less out west, to upwards of 6 inches across our eastern counties.
In other words, thanks to most of the Brazos Valley likely staying on the western side of this circulation, our chance for widespread, soaking rains has come down.
We're still going with this forecast for now. An opportunity to tally between an inch to two inches between now in the end of the week lies in opportune tropical downpours, especially in the afternoon, but also in the potential for one last round of heavy rain to begin Friday.
A new Flash Flood Watch is in effect for our southeastern counties, reflecting where we think the most rain (probably by a lot) will fall over the next few days. The watch currently goes until 7am Thursday, but could very well be extended before Thursday morning.