BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - September 10th marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Typically this is the time of the year that conditions are optimal for tropical storms and hurricanes over a large portion of the basin.
By this time of the year, sea-surface temperatures are the typically the warmest, the ability for the atmosphere to produce thunderstorms is at its peak, upper-level winds are more relaxed, and tropical waves moveing west across the Atlantic are in no short supply.
All of these factors in place typically allow for one or more tropical systems to be active on the 10th day of September. Coming off the heels of Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has become post-tropical and continues to move into colder waters toward Ireland.
There are three tropical waves that National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring:
• One close to the Lesser Antillies currently holds low odds for development.
• A tropical wave moving off the West Coast of Africa could develop after the weekend and may impact parts of the Caribbean and potentially the Eastern US in well over a week's time (low confidence currently).
• There is the tropical wave over the Southeastern Bahamas pointed toward the Gulf of Mexico that is worth watching.
At this time, environmental conditions are not highly conducive for tropical development through the remainder of the workweek, east of the Gufl of Mexico. This tropical wave will create heavy rain and thunderstorms for parts of the Bahamas and Florida. By the weekend, as this area of disturbed weather emerges in the Gulf, it could come into a position where development is more favorable.
The National Hurricane Center currently holds odds at 40% for that development over the next 5 days. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported by ships in the area from ongoing thunderstorms.
The forecast is very far from knowing what -- if anything -- happens with this disturbance and where it heads if development occurs. Nothing to worry about, or look to for needed rainfall, at the moment. This is something the PinPoint Weather Team will be keeping an eye on over the course of the week.