PinPoint Wx Blog: Signs of damp, cold returning next week

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BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) - After what's been arguably one of the most calm, pleasant stretches of weather for the past week or more, we're really starting to feel the effects of the lack of rain on the Brazos Valley.

While not major, numerous grass fires have been reported across our area thanks to a very dry airmass and lack of recent rain. We'll likely close out November as the 9th driest in College Station (.59'' out of an average 3.22''). The overall lack of significant rain since Harvey has put a few of us in the Brazos Valley in the "Abnormally Dry" portion of the drought monitor seen below. In other words, we're not at an extreme deficit, but things are dry enough to where we could definitely use more rain.

We'll have a new look at the US Drought Monitor in their weekly update Thursday, but suffice it to say conditions will likely not improve on our end, for now.

Rest of the week
We keep it pedestrian to finish the week, with chilly mornings and beautiful afternoons in the 70s. It's hard to find a real shot of rain through the weekend, though some new model data has tried to sneak in some weak showers by Sunday afternoon. At the moment, I'm not quite buying it. We'll really start to feel humidity come back into the area by the end of the weekend, but at the moment, that moisture doesn't look to be enough to warrant any rain chance.

First full week of December

DISCLAIMER: From here on, we're still a touch too far away to forecast with high confidence into next week. We can however continue to monitor trends, look for consistencies, and pick reasonable model predictions to help forecast beyond 7 days.

The jetstream hasn't been extremely active in our neck of the woods for a good chunk of November. That could change big time into next week. Model data is pretty consistent in bringing a big trough of low pressure across the eastern US, likely dragging a cold front our way by the early to middle part of next week.

We're confident that with this setup, we'll likely see colder weather. How much colder is still to be answered, but it'll likely be colder than the near 50° that many of us will wake up to through the end of the weekend.

Where confidence wavers is our shot at finding a good, soaking rain across the whole area. One model solution has this front dragging across the area quickly on Tuesday, dumping a touch of rain, then moving out and leaving colder temps in its wake. Another, however, moves this system into the area slower and keeps rain chances for at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

Either way, confidence is increasing that we'll see cooler temps, especially finishing next week.

Again, how much cooler weather we see remains to be forecasted with any real degree of certainty, as shown in this graphic from the Climate Prediction Center. In short, we're likely in our area (and across the eastern US) to experience below average temperatures for a portion of next week.

As far as precipitation, that is less certain. The gut feeling from this meteorologist is that we see a quick cold front come through, with Tuesday being our best chance at rain next week, and a notable, but not soaking amount of rain.

Be sure to check back as we get closer to next week!