Tropical Depression close to forming in the Gulf

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BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) - Thursday Morning Update

Overnight/early morning model data continues to show an encouraging (at least for us Texans) trend eastward, and the National Hurricane Center has reflected that in their forecast track by REMOVING most of the state from the "cone of uncertainty".

Biggest takeaways:
-Major impacts NOT expected for the Brazos Valley
-Hot, humid, and breezy weekend more likely
-Areas of heavy downpours still possible this weekend

Of course, not set in stone, so we'll continue to keep you updated.

As for Louisiana, Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches remain in effect tonight. 3 to 6 foot storm surge if forecast at the mouth of the Pearl River as this system moves closer. Rainfall up to 15 or 20 inches is expected across the state.

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Wednesday 10pm Update

A tropical depression is close to forming in the the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Circulation is becoming more well defined, sustained wind is noted at 30mph. That wind needs to increase 8mph more before it can officially be classified as a depression.

The latest forecast out of Miami has shifted the potential track of what is expected to be Barry slightly east. That is enough to bring a potential landfall to Central Lousiana by late Saturday morning to midday.

For the Brazos Valley, that subtle shift to the east is enough to move the entire area just outside of the "cone of uncertainty." While that is promising for our area, a subtle shift in forecast data could move that cone back into parts of the Brazos Valley.

As for Louisiana, Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches remain in effect tonight. 3 to 6 foot storm surge if forecast at the mouth of the Pearl River as this system moves closer. Rainfall up to 15 or 20 inches is expected across the state.
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Wednesday 4pm Update

The latest from the National Hurricane Center brings some better news to the most of the Brazos Valley.

The morning forecast for what is expected to become Barry in the Gulf of Mexico encompassed the entire Brazos Valley in what is known as the "cone of uncertainty." As of this afternoon's update, that cone has shifted east, leaving only those along and east of I-45 inside of it.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued for the Lousiana Coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in place for the waters just south of the Alabama and Mississippi Coastlines.

Current forecast for Lousiana calls for possible storm surge between 3 and 6 feet. Rainfall forecasts for the state range anywhere from 5" to 18"+ through the weekend.

Next update from the National Hurricane Center is scheduled to be issued at 7pm.
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The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on what will likely become Tropical Storm Barry before the end of the week, potentially making landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane.

The area of low pressure that we've been tracking for several days is beginning to organize, and will likely be designated a tropical depression before the end of the day Wednesday.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued along the eastern portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main impact/threat with this particular system, both in and near where it makes landfall by this weekend.

You'll notice parts of the Brazos Valley are included in the "cone of uncertainty" in the forecast track made by the National Hurricane Center. This is a reminder that while recent model data has been encouraging, we need more organization and consistency to rule out a Brazos Valley impact, especially in terms of rain and wind.

As of Wednesday morning, most models take Barry east of the area, but the forecast is subject to change over the next 24 hours especially. We'll continue to keep you updated as we get more data.