Rain expected Friday: What we know three days out

By  | 

BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - A likely rain event is expected unfold for the Brazos Valley ahead of the weekend. Consistent signals for multiple inches of rain to stack up between late Thursday and early Saturday have confidence high for wet weather.

For a little over a week, forecast weather models have advertised a healthy rain event for the State of Texas and the Brazos Valley. While the fine details are still hard to nail down, signals are clear that rain is expected to fall by week's end.

An area of low pressure has spent the week spinning into a well defined system in the Pacific / off the West Coast. That area of low pressure will continue to remain over the open waters for another 24 hours before making a move to Southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest.

Once this weather maker is over land and US reporting stations, better data can be collected and ingested into the forecast models to start working on the fine tuned aspects of the forecast. That should begin by early Thursday.

Those fine tune details:

• better timing for when rain will move in and out of the Brazos Valley
• better timing of when heavy rain may be possible and where
• better understanding of the widespread rainfall possibility
• better understanding of how high localized totals may collect up to

As of Wednesday evening, here is where the forecast stands:

• Light rain is possible as early as midday Thursday. Light, spotty rain is more likely by late afternoon / early evening (at a 20% or 30% chance)
• Widespread rain chance is expected to increase through the day Friday. Not a washout, but scattered rain is expected at any point of the day
• Most likely chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives by afternoon and continues into the overnight / early hours of Saturday. This is when the heaviest rain is expected to fall and the washout may occur.
• Severe weather threat does not seem high -- although a few stronger storms with gusty wind and lightning are not ruled out
• 2" to 4" of widespread rainfall is very possible. Localized 5" to 7" totals are not far fetched
• A Flash Flood Watch may be issued by the National Weather Service by Friday morning.

More details as the week progresses. As of now, this remains a situation to monitor. No need to fully cancel plans, but you will want to have a solid second option for anything (especially outdoors) scheduled Friday evening and night.